1323 Niagara Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$89,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1910 4,872 sqft lot $50/sqft · 24% above area Est $72k · 24% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, formal Dining Room, eat-in Kitchen. Roof approximately 4 years old. Detached 1 car garage. Newer furnace, circuit breakers.

Key facts

• 4,872 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1910

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $616 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $619 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $84,130 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.50%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $72,434
• List price: $89,500
• Delta: 23.56%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1307 Niagara Ave	0.02mi	4/1.5	1,536 (-14%)	3mo	$95,000	$62	74
1739 Lockport St	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,598 (-10%)	4mo	$120,000	$75	69
1329 Niagara Ave	0.01mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	2mo	$85,000	$55	68
1656 Weston Ave	0.30mi	4/1.0	1,581 (-11%)	12mo	$55,000	$35	55
1857 Ontario Ave	0.40mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,546 (-13%)	1mo	$85,000	$55	53
2222 Weston Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,690 (-5%)	15mo	$110,000	$65	47
2233 South Ave	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,553 (-13%)	3mo	$155,000	$100	41
2415 Linwood Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (-11%)	6mo	$145,000	$92	39
2452 Niagara Ave	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,608 (-10%)	8mo	$152,000	$95	38
2412 Pierce Ave	0.74mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,602 (-10%)	8mo	$160,000	$100	37
2707 21st St	0.58mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,530 (-14%)	11mo	$115,000	$75	36
2418 North Ave	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,036 (+14%)	15mo	$189,900	$93	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $24,794
• Equity at exit: $13,345

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.89×
• Total profit: $72,347
• Equity at exit: $7,738

Cash invested: $25,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$469
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,953/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $616

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $89,500

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,375
• Closing costs: $2,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.64mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	16d	1	0.74mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	0.80mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	43d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 Bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, formal Dining Room, eat-in Kitchen. Roof approximately 4 years old. Detached 1 car garage. Newer furnace, circuit breakers.

2. 2026-05-03
   price $89,500 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 Bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, formal Dining Room, eat-in Kitchen. Roof approximately 4 years old. Detached 1 car garage. Newer furnace, circuit breakers.

3. 2026-03-16
   listed $94,900 Active 148-char remark

   Show marketing remark (148 chars)

   4 Bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, formal Dining Room, eat-in Kitchen. Roof approximately 4 years old. Detached 1 car garage. Newer furnace, circuit breakers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,953 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,013
• − Property taxes: −$1,953
• − Insurance: −$448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − Depreciation: −$2,604
• Taxable income: $6,385
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $5,861/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $89,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $94,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,953 · +16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.