301 Chesaning St · St. Charles, MI 48655

$17,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1920 0.36 ac lot $18/sqft · 84% below area ↓ 34% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your tool belt and imagination! Approximately 1/2 acre located in the Village. This home is a complete rehab - Cash Sale Only. Inside has been taken down to the studs - no floors or subflooring. Sale includes two parcel ID's.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($839 rent vs $18k).
• Recommended offer: $17k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Charles Community Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #196 of 540 in MI (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $121 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $525 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($17k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (65%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,237 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 127.71%
• DSCR: 6.68
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $111,279
• List price: $17,500
• Delta: -82.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
117 E Maple St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	984 (+1%)	3mo	$36,000	$37	72
510 W Hosmer St	0.36mi	2/1.5	956 (-1%)	11mo	$105,000	$110	70
120 S Miami St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+12%)	2mo	$120,000	$110	67
223 W Hosmer St	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+13%)	2mo	$148,500	$135	62
135 W Walnut St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-4%)	6mo	$140,000	$150	61
410 W Clinton St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (+6%)	17mo	$30,500	$30	56
508 Coal St	0.44mi	2/1.0	1,040 (+7%)	20mo	$34,000	$33	50
403 Spruce St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,090 (+12%)	18mo	$129,900	$119	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $3,500
• Equity at exit: $2,609

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $12,003
• Equity at exit: $1,513

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48655

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $508/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $719

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $100	+0% $95	+5% $90	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $29	-5% $62	+0% $95	+5% $128	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $104	-0.5pp $99	base $95	+0.5pp $90	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 44 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $17,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $17,500 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $17,500 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $17,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $17,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $17,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $17,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $17,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $17,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $17,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $17,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $17,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $17,500 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $17,500 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical
18. 2026-04-14
    price $19,900
19. 2026-04-14
    price $19,900
20. 2026-04-02
    status Active
21. 2026-04-02
    status Active
22. 2026-03-19
    status Pending
23. 2026-03-19
    status Pending
24. 2026-03-19
    historical
25. 2026-03-04
    price $24,900
26. 2026-03-03
    price $24,900
27. 2026-02-06
    price $29,900
28. 2026-02-05
    price $29,900
29. 2026-01-20
    price $34,900
30. 2026-01-19
    price $34,900
31. 2026-01-08
    price $39,900
32. 2026-01-07
    price $39,900
33. 2025-12-03
    price $44,900
34. 2025-12-02
    price $44,900
35. 2025-11-17
    listed $49,900 Active
36. 2025-11-17
    listed $49,900 Active
37. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $15,500 Sold
38. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $15,500 Closed
39. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $15,500
40. 2021-06-22
    status Pending
41. 2021-06-22
    status Pending
42. 2021-06-16
    listed $19,900 Active
43. 2021-06-16
    listed $19,900 Active
44. 2005-08-09
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $508 · $42/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$508
• − Insurance: −$5,206
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$805
• − Management: −$805
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $1,255
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$301
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Charles Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632640
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,744
• Composite: 35.25/100
• National rank: #4976
• State rank: #196 of 540 in MI

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Charles, MI
• City population: 5,655
• Population (ZIP): 5,655

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.51%
• Current HPI: 221.6423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-33.7% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-19 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-19 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $24,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $24,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $34,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $34,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $44,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $44,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-11-17 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $15,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $15,500 REALCOMP
• 2021-06-22 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-06-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-06-16 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2005-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $508 · -72.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.