2516 Waco St · San Angelo, TX 76901

$229,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 6,403 sqft lot $183/sqft · 48% above area Est $156k · 48% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Be the first to own this beautiful new construction home, with completion expected by the end of March! Interior photos are representative of the planned finishes. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home will feature an open-concept layout with a dining area, a 1-car garage, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a designated laundry room. Seller assisting with buyer's closing costs is available — don't miss out!

Key facts

• 6,403 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Driveway; Garage faces front; 1 garage space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction
• Construction: Brick and other exterior materials; Slab foundation; Composition/shingle roof; Built recently (new construction)
• Exterior features: Porch; Privacy fencing; Corner lot; Paved city street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Granite countertops
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Granite counters; Ceiling fans; Double-pane windows; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer hookups; Electric water heater; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (29.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (29.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in San Angelo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Angelo ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #627 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgill El (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 306 students, 79% FRL); Lone Star Middle (math 28% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 903 students, 63% FRL); Central H S (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 3,065 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 233 units permitted in Tom Green County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tom Green County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,049 (29.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.90%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,740
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: 47.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 5.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $109,706
• Equity at exit: $207,112

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.43×
• Total profit: $349,477
• Equity at exit: $446,645

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76901

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $184,102

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-237	+0% $-317	+5% $-396	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-380	+0% $-317	+5% $-253	+10% $-189
Rate	-1.0pp $-201	-0.5pp $-258	base $-317	+0.5pp $-376	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2630 Waco St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,600	$1.56	23d	1	0.07mi
2425 Waco St San Angelo, TX	4.0	1.0	1225	$1,395	$1.14	45d	1	0.15mi
2804 Abilene St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,550	$1.19	45d	1	0.20mi
2629 Forest Park Ave San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,895	$1.42	45d	1	0.27mi
1405 Hassell St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,950	$1.83	45d	1	0.40mi
1210 Guthrie St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,400	$1.21	23d	1	0.47mi
2430 Rio Grande St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	45d	1	0.51mi
2102 Webster St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1233	$1,750	$1.42	45d	1	0.53mi
2505 W Harris Ave San Angelo, TX	2.0	2.0	1582	$1,300	$0.82	45d	1	0.66mi
1835 Willow St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1267	$1,750	$1.38	45d	1	0.69mi
2802 Field St San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,600	$1.16	45d	1	0.73mi
2102 Raney St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,295	$1.25	23d	1	0.85mi
1929 Raney St San Angelo, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$1,000	$1.31	23d	4	0.86mi
711 N Monroe St San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1345	$1,500	$1.12	45d	1	0.89mi
1905 Meadowbrook Dr San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,400	$1.18	45d	1	0.91mi
3755 Arden Rd San Angelo, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0	875	$1,025	$1.17	23d	1	0.91mi
3344 Trinity Ave San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$1,900	$1.23	23d	1	0.99mi
3801 Arden Rd Apt 65 San Angelo, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,199	$1.17	23d	1	1.05mi
3801 Arden Rd Apt 108 San Angelo, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,215	$1.19	45d	1	1.05mi
279 Glenna Dr San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,795	$1.10	23d	1	1.13mi
210 N Jefferson St #210 San Angelo, TX	3.0	3.0	1706	$1,600	$0.94	23d	1	1.14mi
3207 Trinity Ave San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,995	$1.30	45d	1	1.16mi
2013 Rosemont Dr San Angelo, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,100	$1.50	23d	1	1.28mi
2756 Sac Ave San Angelo, TX	3.0	1.0	1461	$1,650	$1.13	45d	1	1.28mi
902 Shiloh St Unit RE-908-C San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.5	925	$1,175	$1.27	45d	1	1.38mi
902 Shiloh St Unit RE-908-16 San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,125	$1.29	45d	1	1.38mi
1725 West Avenue M Unit M San Angelo, TX	2.0	1.0	1202	$1,350	$1.12	23d	1	1.44mi
2431 College Hills Blvd San Angelo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,609	$1.57	23d	17	1.46mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-02
   listed $229,900 Active 424-char remark
2. 2026-02-25
   historical
3. 2026-02-25
   listed $229,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,326
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,546
• − Management: −$1,546
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$7,930
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,903
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Angelo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838700
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,501
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7427
• State rank: #627 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Angelo

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Angelo, TX
• County: Tom Green County · 113,188 people
• City population: 81,357
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,831
• Household income: $69,450
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Tom Green County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,110 people
• By 2030: 144,090 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 162,561 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 182,158 · +34.8%
• By 2075: 232,274 · +71.9%
• By 2100: 268,218 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 17% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tom Green

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.0) · D 25.5% · R 73.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.3pp toward R · 2008: -41.7pp · 2024: -48.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.0 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+47.9 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+41.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.96%
• Current HPI: 798.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.78%
• Metro: San Angelo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — SAAR TX
• 2026-05-02 Listed $229,900 SAAR TX
• 2026-02-25 Delisted — SAAR TX
• 2026-02-25 Listed $229,900 SAAR TX

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $431 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.