127 Gerrell Dr SW · Milledgeville, GA 31061

$135,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1974 0.81 ac lot $52/sqft · 42% below area Est $234k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located on a quiet cul-de-sac. HVAC system, metal roof, flooring in key areas, and breaker box were installed within the last 5 years. Sold "as-is" - cash or conventional financing preferred. Includes two lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW & 127 Gerrell Dr SW.

Key facts

• Breaker box
• Two lots
• Metal roof

Tags

• HVAC SYSTEM
• METAL ROOF
• FLOORING IN KEY AREAS
• BREAKER BOX
• TWO LOTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $325 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.9% in Milledgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#134 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities D+, schools F, crime F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.30%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,553
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -42.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $401
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $33,703
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $325

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,107

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $401	-5% $363	+0% $325	+5% $286	+10% $248
Rent	-10% $205	-5% $265	+0% $325	+5% $384	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $359	base $325	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 49 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-04-15
    listed $135,000 New 299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (299 chars)

    Spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located on a quiet cul-de-sac. HVAC system, metal roof, flooring in key areas, and breaker box were installed within the last 5 years. Sold "as-is" - cash or conventional financing preferred. Includes two lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW & 127 Gerrell Dr SW.

18. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

19. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

20. 2024-11-21
    soldstatus $115,000

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

21. 2024-09-11
    status Under Contract 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

22. 2024-08-10
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

23. 2024-08-10
    historical Active Under Contract 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

24. 2024-07-19
    status Back On Market 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

25. 2024-07-19
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

26. 2024-07-07
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

27. 2024-07-07
    historical Active Under Contract 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

28. 2024-07-03
    listed $115,000 Active
29. 2024-06-29
    listed $115,000 New 383-char remark

    Show marketing remark (383 chars)

    Huge home with 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths located in cul-de-sac. Home owner made multiple improvements over the last 2 years including the following: new HVAC system, some new flooring, and new breaker box. A new metal roof was installed in the last 3 years. This is an "as-is" sale. Prefer cash or conventional Sale includes lots: 125A Gerrell Dr SW and 127 Gerrell Dr SW

30. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $90,000 Sold
31. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $90,000
32. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $90,000
33. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $90,000
34. 2022-10-20
    status Under Contract
35. 2022-10-14
    price $99,900
36. 2022-09-27
    listed $119,900 New
37. 2022-09-27
    listed $119,900
38. 2022-09-27
    listed $99,900
39. 2022-09-27
    listed $119,900 New
40. 2022-09-27
    historical
41. 2021-09-07
    soldstatus $26,000
42. 2021-08-30
    soldstatus $26,000 Sold
43. 2021-08-16
    status Under Contract
44. 2021-07-08
    status Back on Market
45. 2021-06-24
    historical
46. 2021-05-19
    price $34,000
47. 2021-05-11
    status Back on Market
48. 2021-04-27
    status Under Contract
49. 2020-12-23
    listed $38,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,209
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,811
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Milledgeville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #9206

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+247.0% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $135,000 GAMLS
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2024-11-21 Sold (MLS) $115,000 LCBR
• 2024-11-21 Sold (MLS) $115,000 GAMLS
• 2024-09-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-08-10 Contingent — LCBR
• 2024-08-10 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2024-07-19 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-07-19 Relisted — LCBR
• 2024-07-07 Contingent — LCBR
• 2024-07-07 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2024-07-03 Listed $115,000 LCBR
• 2024-06-29 Listed $115,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 MGMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CGMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) $90,000 GAMLS
• 2022-10-20 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-10-14 Price Changed $99,900 GAMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $99,900 MGMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $119,900 CGMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $119,900 GAMLS
• 2021-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-30 Sold (MLS) $26,000 GAMLS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-07-08 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-06-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2021-05-19 Price Changed $34,000 GAMLS
• 2021-05-11 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-04-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2020-12-23 Listed $38,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,320 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.