9 Clarence Harder Dr · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1955 5,863 sqft lot Est $233k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ESTATE NEEDS TO SELL. NEWER ROOF, ELECTRIC, FURNACE & HOT WATER TANK. WITH SOME PAINT AND MINOR UPDATING THIS HOUSE COULD BE A REAL GEM!

Key facts

• Fenced in back yard
• Hardwood floors
• Passthrough room

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• PASSTHROUGH ROOM
• TANKLESS HOT WATER TANK
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• TEAR-OFF ARCHITECTURAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Poured foundation; Existing (previously built) construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 50 x 117); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Main-level bedrooms: 2; Second-level bedroom: 1
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Main level primary; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (4.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 193 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $200k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $191,738 (4.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.52%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Winkler Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+5%)	2mo	$210,000	$198	77
30 Bannard Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+2%)	2mo	$220,000	$213	73
20 Nicholas Dr N	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+10%)	5mo	$160,000	$144	64
205 Bannard Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	999 (-1%)	8mo	$186,500	$187	63
23 Winkler Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,060 (+5%)	17mo	$215,000	$203	62
18 Joseph Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (+9%)	3mo	$295,000	$269	61
128 Bannard Ave	0.46mi	2/1.5 (-1)	972 (-4%)	6mo	$168,500	$173	60
346 Maldiner Ave	0.68mi	3/1.5	999 (-1%)	9mo	$280,000	$280	57
236 Newell Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	999 (-1%)	16mo	$237,000	$237	56
157 Newell Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,131 (+12%)	8mo	$269,900	$239	50
29 Bonnett Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+6%)	13mo	$262,000	$246	48
299 Newell Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,103 (+9%)	2mo	$255,299	$231	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-11,471
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $40,512
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,067/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $267	+0% $211	+5% $154	+10% $98
Rent	-10% $59	-5% $135	+0% $211	+5% $287	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $262	base $211	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Winkler Dr Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1060	$2,100	$1.98	12d	1	0.28mi
115 Klinger Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	4d	1	0.64mi
285 Crestmount Ave Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,905	$2.63	2d	9	0.86mi
1835 Military Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$2,175	$2.04	18d	1	1.20mi
184 Sweeney St North Tonawanda, NY	2.0	2.0	1155	$2,000	$1.73	2d	1	1.34mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	24d	1	1.47mi
330 E Niagara St Tonawanda, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,900	$1.95	2d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $199,900 Active
3. 2014-03-26
   soldstatus $60,000 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   ESTATE NEEDS TO SELL. NEWER ROOF, ELECTRIC, FURNACE & HOT WATER TANK. WITH SOME PAINT AND MINOR UPDATING THIS HOUSE COULD BE A REAL GEM!

4. 2014-03-26
   soldstatus $60,000

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   ESTATE NEEDS TO SELL. NEWER ROOF, ELECTRIC, FURNACE & HOT WATER TANK. WITH SOME PAINT AND MINOR UPDATING THIS HOUSE COULD BE A REAL GEM!

5. 2013-11-01
   listed $69,900 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   ESTATE NEEDS TO SELL. NEWER ROOF, ELECTRIC, FURNACE & HOT WATER TANK. WITH SOME PAINT AND MINOR UPDATING THIS HOUSE COULD BE A REAL GEM!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$656/yr (+$55/mo · 31.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,067
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$752
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$180
• After-tax cash flow: $2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+186.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2014-03-26 Sold (MLS) $60,000 WNYREIS
• 2013-11-01 Listed $69,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,067 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.