2054 Old Government St · Mobile, AL 36606

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1990 7,575 sqft lot Est $195k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 bedroom, 2 bath cottage featuring a new roof in 2025. This fixer upper offers great potential for buyers looking to renovate and make it their own. Buyer responsible for verifying all measurements and relevant details. Home is being sold subject to probate court approval.

Key facts

• 7,575 sq ft lot
• 4 parking spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.9% in Mobile — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#20 in AL, #4,262 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leinkauf Elementary School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #499 of 627 statewide, top 80%, 538 students, 91% FRL); Murphy High School (math 10% / reading 19%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 1,254 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 174 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,656
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Woodcock Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,233 (+0%)	4mo	$195,000	$158	71
1809 Woodcock Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-2%)	4mo	$195,000	$161	69
1801 Woodcock Pl	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,253 (+2%)	4mo	$195,000	$156	68
53 Mohawk St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,207 (-2%)	4mo	$235,000	$195	66
165 S Fulton St	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,085 (-12%)	1mo	$261,000	$241	64
210 Houston St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,182 (-4%)	2mo	$155,000	$131	60
503 Dauphin Island Pkwy	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,159 (-6%)	3mo	$40,500	$35	58
53 Carlen St S	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,383 (+12%)	1mo	$300,000	$217	57
616 Morgan Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-7%)	3mo	$42,000	$37	56
258 W Mount Island Dr	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (+10%)	2mo	$263,500	$195	50
603 Glenwood St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+14%)	4mo	$137,000	$98	41
21 HOUSTON St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,375 (+12%)	1mo	$180,000	$131	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,986
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $50,283
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36606

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 S Fulton St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.5	1255	$1,750	$1.39	21d	1	0.05mi
182 Williams St Unit 1043570P Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1399	$2,476	$1.77	14d	1	0.09mi
122 Demouy Ave Unit 1/2 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,530	$1.18	44d	1	0.39mi
400 Westwood St Mobile, AL	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,005	$1.34	44d	1	0.42mi
104 Ellinor St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,275	$1.42	21d	1	0.43mi
2503 Richard Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	928	$805	$0.87	14d	1	0.53mi
2500 Taylor Ave Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,195	$1.42	44d	1	0.54mi
562 Clarke St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1061	$1,025	$0.97	44d	1	0.55mi
2507 Taylor Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1230	$1,495	$1.22	14d	1	0.56mi
561 Dauphin Island Pkwy Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1389	$1,050	$0.76	44d	1	0.58mi
611 Dauphin Island Pkwy Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	0.67mi
615 Mohawk St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1172	$1,500	$1.28	44d	1	0.67mi
618 Clarke St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1427	$1,200	$0.84	44d	1	0.70mi
200 S Florida St Unit 101 Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,375	$1.20	21d	1	0.71mi
2656 Pathway Pl Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0	778	$1,261	$1.62	14d	9	0.76mi
1704 McGill Ave Unit B Mobile, AL	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.78mi
107 Grand Blvd Mobile, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,295	$1.08	21d	1	0.87mi
129 Shell Road Pl Unit 1043713P Mobile, AL	4.0	2.0	1496	$3,389	$2.27	21d	1	0.87mi
706 Cherokee St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,375	$1.09	21d	1	0.90mi
728 Bankhead Pl Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	810	$675	$0.83	44d	1	0.93mi
2604 Dauphin St #210 Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,150	$1.21	21d	1	0.98mi
2604 Dauphin St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,072	$1.13	44d	2	0.98mi
418 Durande Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,350	$0.93	14d	1	1.02mi
111 S Catherine St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	891	$899	$1.01	44d	1	1.04mi
186 Stanton Rd Mobile, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1263	$2,450	$1.94	44d	1	1.05mi
1566 Dauphin St Unit Back Carriage House Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.06mi
84 S Lafayette St Unit 1043577P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,116	$2.08	14d	1	1.10mi
767 Jemison St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	850	$750	$0.88	44d	1	1.11mi
2008 W Victory Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1011	$1,200	$1.19	44d	1	1.11mi
2500 Dauphinwood Dr Mobile, AL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1250	$1,395	$1.12	14d	19	1.12mi
168 W Collins St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	968	$725	$0.75	21d	1	1.13mi
1417 Monroe St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	44d	1	1.21mi
2068 Victory Ct Mobile, AL	4.0	1.0	1259	$1,225	$0.97	44d	1	1.21mi
305 Indian Creek Dr E Unit 1043809P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,985	$2.66	14d	1	1.22mi
817 Hawkins St Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1217	$1,200	$0.99	44d	1	1.23mi
150 Dunn Ave Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,250	$0.86	21d	1	1.23mi
2859 Brierwood Dr Mobile, AL	3.0	1.0	1057	$1,500	$1.42	14d	1	1.29mi
2855 Potter Dr Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,050	$0.93	44d	1	1.29mi
2861 Potter Dr Unit 1043844P Mobile, AL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,492	$1.67	21d	1	1.33mi
900 Courtney St Mobile, AL	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,200	$1.18	44d	1	1.33mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $2,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$608
• After-tax cash flow: $3,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mobile

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #4262

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mobile, AL
• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• City population: 205,729
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 18,728
• Household income: $51,303
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 999.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 37% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Scottish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.19%
• Current HPI: 145.9025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.06%
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B