11030 Pioneer Rd · Belle Fontaine, AL 36582

$29,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,652 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1956 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A diamond in the rough — an upside investor opportunity for someone willing to put in the work. Sitting on a quiet street with great privacy from the road, just down from the river and surrounded by higher price points. Interior condition is unknown. The property is currently occupied by squatters and is assumed to require an eviction to vacate, with the buyer assuming full responsibility for the removal. Buyer to verify occupancy status, condition, and all property details independently. It’s been massively discounted to reflect the extra hurdles — jump into this deal today and thank yourself tomorrow.

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Electric: Other; Sewer: Septic tank; No listed utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1956; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other roof
• Construction: Asbestos construction material; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Other roof
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features; No fencing; No pool or spa; View present

Interior

• Kitchen: Other kitchen features; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Other heating; Other cooling

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#398 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hollingers Island Elementary School (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 291 students, 72% FRL); Theodore High School (math 10% / reading 12%, grade F, #247 of 305 statewide, top 81%, 1,280 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 250 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 181.71%
• DSCR: 9.09
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,192
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10885 Pelican Bay Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+12%)	23mo	$269,900	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.07×
• Total profit: $75,947
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.34×
• Total profit: $170,302
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36582

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Active inventory: 250
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,908 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $844/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $1,268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $303

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3551 Baumhauer Rd Theodore, AL	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,700	$0.93	13d	1	1.40mi
3551 Baumhauer Rd Theodore, AL	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,900	$1.03	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $29,900 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $29,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $29,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   remarks 610-char remark
7. 2026-06-09
   listed $29,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $844 · $70/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,896
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$844
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,832
• − Management: −$1,832
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $15,695
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,767
• After-tax cash flow: $11,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Belle Fontaine

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #22301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mobile County · 246,577 people
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• Population (ZIP): 23,705
• Household income: $64,763
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 18% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.61%
• Current HPI: 209.7621
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mobile, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $29,900 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $844 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.