438 Ocean Pkwy #10 · Ocean Pines, MD 21811

$230,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $228k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained condo offering comfortable living, spacious interiors, and a convenient location close to shopping, dining, transportation, and everyday amenities. An excellent opportunity for homeowners and investors alike. Move-in ready and waiting for its next owner!

Key facts

• Built 1973

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Owned fee simple; Estimated major renovation in 2025
• Construction: Cement siding and combination exterior materials; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Vacation rental allowed

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; One bedroom on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Programmable thermostat; Heat pump(s); Forced air and central heating; Electric heating fuel; 60+ gallon hot water tank
• Interior features: Estimated living area; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.3% in Ocean Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#172 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Worcester County Public Schools (town): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #6 of 24 in MD (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 354 units permitted in Worcester County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Worcester County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $175k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.52%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,298
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
438 Ocean Pkwy #39	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	2mo	$228,000	$161	97
438 Ocean Pkwy #35	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	2mo	$204,050	$144	96
438 Ocean Pkwy #41	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	8mo	$245,700	$173	92
438 Ocean Pkwy #4	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$166	87
438 Ocean #40	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,332 (-6%)	2mo	$204,050	$153	86
438 Ocean Pkwy #36	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,418 (0%)	17mo	$229,000	$161	78
438 Ocean Unit 18/AR	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,418 (0%)	18mo	$232,500	$164	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $11,551
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $72,952
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21811

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,002/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,943

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Offshore Ln Berlin, MD	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,000	$1.70	21d	1	0.54mi
11 Abbyshire Rd Berlin, MD	3.0	2.0	1820	$2,295	$1.26	21d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $230,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 277-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $230,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,002 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,254 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$253/yr (+$21/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 92% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$2,002
• − Insurance: −$1,948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable income: $5,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,402
• After-tax cash flow: $7,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Worcester County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400720
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $56,748
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5672
• State rank: #6 of 24 in MD

Livability — Ocean Pines

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #7691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Pines, MD
• County: Worcester County · 35,603 people
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• Population (ZIP): 24,377
• Household income: $90,082
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Worcester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,363 people
• By 2030: 51,191 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 50,459 · -1.8%
• By 2050: 49,451 · -3.7%
• By 2075: 48,533 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 44,223 · -13.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Worcester

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 38.0% · R 60.0% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -15.5pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+27.9 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.52%
• Current HPI: 292.9004
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Salisbury, MD-DE
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+736.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $230,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $2,150 Public Records
• 1987-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1982-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,002 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.