4021 Illinois Ave NW · Washington, DC 20011

$501,600

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,522 sqft · Townhouse public records · 158 Days on market

Built 1916 1,827 sqft lot Est $545k · 8% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NOTICE: Reverse Mortgage Note Holder has approved a short Sale! The list price is the final PRICE the lender will accept. 🛠️ Estate Sale | Vacant | Ideal for FHA 203(k) Renovation Loan 🛏️ 3 Bedrooms | 🛁 3 Full Baths | 📐 2,250+ Total SqFt | 🏡 4 Finished Levels 🏡 DISCOVER THE POTENTIAL OF CLASSIC PETWORTH LIVING Introducing 4021 Illinois Ave NW, an expansive, sun-filled rowhome on a quiet, tree-lined avenue in the desirable Petworth neighborhood of Washington, DC. This vacant estate sale offers unmatched value and flexibility for homeowners or investors seeking a renovation-ready property in one of DC’s most dynamic communities. Built in 1916, this charming Federal-style residence feat

Key facts

• Built 1916
• Listed 158 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $502k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $256 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $408k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.5% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#1 in DC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• District Of Columbia Public Schools (urban): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #8 of 32 in DC (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bruce-Monroe Es At Park View (433 students, 0% FRL); Macfarland Ms (528 students, 0% FRL); Roosevelt Hs (913 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,737 units permitted in District of Columbia in 2024 (1,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• District of Columbia County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $123k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1916 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $408,097 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1916 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $544,876
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
722 Shepherd St NW	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,548 (+2%)	2mo	$484,500	$313	75
4513 5th St NW	0.35mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,488 (-2%)	2mo	$360,000	$242	71
4124 New Hampshire Ave NW	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,360 (-11%)	2mo	$555,000	$408	65
743 Princeton Pl NW	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+5%)	1mo	$385,000	$241	64
4210 New Hampshire Ave NW	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (+13%)	2mo	$530,000	$308	63
435 Newton Pl NW	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-7%)	3mo	$750,000	$530	59
828 Allison St NW	0.47mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,612 (+6%)	2mo	$630,000	$391	55
4928 3rd St NW	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,562 (+3%)	1mo	$559,000	$358	53
826 Delafield Pl NW	0.68mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,542 (+1%)	3mo	$645,000	$418	53
46 Allison St NE	0.67mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,450 (-5%)	3mo	$375,000	$259	51
415 Farragut St NW	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,380 (-9%)	0mo	$410,000	$297	51
733 Morton St NW	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$580,000	$432	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-71,459
• Equity at exit: $74,790

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-67,118
• Equity at exit: $43,369

Cash invested: $140,448 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State District of Columbia: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Washington: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+43

Rent Stabilization Program; TOPA gives tenants right of first refusal.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20011

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,630
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,537/yr
• Insurance: −$209
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$857
• Net cashflow: $256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,756

Max offer price $501,600

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $398	+0% $256	+5% $114	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-66	-5% $95	+0% $256	+5% $418	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $509	-0.5pp $384	base $256	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $125,400
• Closing costs: $15,048
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Taylor St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1728	$4,200	$2.43	26d	1	0.11mi
4023 New Hampshire Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	1946	$5,950	$3.06	26d	1	0.16mi
734 Quincy St NW Unit A Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1900	$3,795	$2.00	26d	1	0.36mi
3631 Warder St NW Washington, DC	5.0	3.0	1880	$4,590	$2.44	26d	1	0.39mi
3552 Warder St NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1240	$3,995	$3.22	26d	1	0.52mi
3552 Warder St NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,750	$2.50	22d	1	0.53mi
4527 Georgia Ave NW #2 Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1600	$4,200	$2.62	26d	1	0.55mi
440 Delafield Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1564	$3,400	$2.17	20d	1	0.56mi
440 Delafield Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.5	1564	$3,400	$2.17	19d	1	0.56mi
4605 Georgia Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.0	2000	$4,500	$2.25	9d	1	0.58mi
1006 Quebec Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1584	$3,400	$2.15	6d	1	0.59mi
3613 New Hampshire Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	26d	1	0.60mi
242 Emerson St NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1800	$3,775	$2.10	20d	1	0.63mi
447 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	5.0	2.5	2000	$5,600	$2.80	7d	1	0.66mi
1005 Otis Pl NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,125	$0.70	26d	1	0.67mi
12 Hawaii Ave NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1650	$3,650	$2.21	0d	1	0.68mi
440 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	1210	$3,600	$2.98	26d	1	0.68mi
4607 N Capitol St NE Washington, DC	3.0	1.5	1536	$2,975	$1.94	26d	1	0.69mi
4823 9th St NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	2144	$3,750	$1.75	7d	1	0.69mi
3716 13th St NW Washington, DC	3.0	3.0	2180	$5,100	$2.34	5d	1	0.70mi
752 Park Rd NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1920	$3,595	$1.87	26d	1	0.71mi
66 Allison St NE Unit 66 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1545	$3,500	$2.27	26d	1	0.72mi
636 Lamont St NW Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1250	$3,600	$2.88	21d	1	0.73mi
139 Hawaii Ave NE Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1728	$3,600	$2.08	16d	1	0.78mi
4617 Arkansas Ave NW Washington, DC	4.0	3.0	1538	$4,350	$2.83	20d	1	0.80mi
3821 14th St NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1182	$3,995	$3.38	26d	1	0.80mi
1358 Parkwood Pl NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1280	$4,500	$3.52	9d	1	0.85mi
517 Columbia Rd NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	1350	$4,950	$3.67	20d	1	0.86mi
1419 Upshur St NW #1 Washington, DC	3.0	2.5	1164	$3,239	$2.78	26d	1	0.87mi
5201 2nd St NW Unit A Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	2000	$4,000	$2.00	26d	1	0.90mi
636 Columbia Rd NW Washington, DC	4.0	2.5	2070	$4,900	$2.37	17d	1	0.92mi
636 Columbia Rd NW Washington, DC	5.0	2.5	2070	$4,900	$2.37	26d	1	0.92mi
1028 Kenyon St NW Washington, DC	5.0	3.5	1800	$5,395	$3.00	20d	1	0.93mi
1315 Park Rd NW #22 Washington, DC	3.0	2.0	1800	$4,444	$2.47	7d	1	0.94mi
413 Ingraham St NW Unit 1 Washington, DC	4.0	3.0	1464	$4,500	$3.07	0d	1	0.94mi
1445 Oak St NW Unit B2 Washington, DC	4.0	2.0	1325	$4,799	$3.62	26d	1	1.00mi
5404 4th St NW #2 Washington, DC	4.0	3.5	2250	$5,900	$2.62	6d	1	1.01mi
5404 4th St NW #1 Washington, DC	4.0	4.5	2250	$5,500	$2.44	6d	1	1.01mi
733 Gresham Pl NW Washington, DC	5.0	2.0	1384	$4,995	$3.61	26d	1	1.04mi
3116 13th St NW Washington, DC	3.0	1.0	1678	$2,850	$1.70	9d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $501,600 Pending 158 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $501,600 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $501,600 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $501,600 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $501,600 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   price $501,600 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $625,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $625,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $625,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $625,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $625,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $625,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-01-08
    listed $625,000 Active
14. 2025-11-02
    historical
15. 2025-09-20
    price $575,000
16. 2025-08-29
    listed $395,000 Active
17. 2025-08-24
    historical
18. 2025-07-24
    historical
19. 2025-05-17
    price $575,000
20. 2025-05-07
    price $599,000
21. 2025-05-07
    status Active
22. 2024-10-03
    status Pending
23. 2024-10-01
    price $620,000
24. 2024-09-22
    listed $640,000 Active
25. 2024-09-17
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DC · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,537 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,298 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$762/yr (+$63/mo · 49.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,972
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,097
• − Property taxes: −$1,537
• − Insurance: −$2,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,918
• − Management: −$3,918
• − Depreciation: −$14,592
• Taxable loss: −$5,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,343
• After-tax cash flow: $4,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: District Of Columbia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 1100030
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,671
• Composite: 35.84/100
• National rank: #9606
• State rank: #8 of 32 in DC

Livability — Washington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #5327

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Washington, DC
• County: District of Columbia · 671,873 people
• City population: 671,873
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 67,434
• Household income: $110,309
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3020.0

Population outlook (District of Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 821,926 people
• By 2030: 899,517 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 1,061,162 · +29.1%
• By 2050: 1,231,493 · +49.8%
• By 2075: 1,603,312 · +95.1%
• By 2100: 1,847,141 · +124.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% Hispanic / Latino 23% White 20% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · District of Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+86.1) · D 91.2% · R 5.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 85.9pp · 2024: 86.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+86.1 2020: D+86.8 2016: D+88.7 2012: D+84.2 2008: D+85.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -755.96%
• Current HPI: 378.1083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.33%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in DC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$153B
▸Life Sciences / Industrials	1	$25B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$8B

Price history

-2.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Listed $625,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-20 Price Changed $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-29 Listed $395,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-24 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $599,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-07 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $620,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-22 Listed $640,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-09-17 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,537 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.