54 Dublin Rd · South Lansing, NY 14882

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1969 0.82 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable, practical, and well-positioned, this property offers the convenience of one-level living, usable outdoor space, and a location that balances peaceful country living with easy access to area amenities. Set on nearly an acre, you'll enjoy a rural setting while remaining just minutes from Lansing, Myers Park, and Cayuga Lake, with Cornell University and Downtown Ithaca only a short drive away. A functional floor plan provides comfortable living spaces, three bedrooms, and plenty of natural light throughout. Situated on a block foundation, the home has benefited from several improvements over the years, including an updated windows, roof and mechanical system, offering added peace o

Key facts

• Updated windows
• One-level living
• Usable outdoor space

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED MECHANICAL SYSTEM
• LANSING SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Carport; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Propane service
• Home design: One-story double wide mobile home; Residential property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Rectangular lot; Other lot features (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced air heating
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room; Washer and dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.8% vs local median 2.2% in South Lansing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lansing Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #244 of 590 in NY (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Raymond C Buckley Elementary School (math 37% / reading 67%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 405 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $79k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.46%
• DSCR: 3.78
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.74×
• Total profit: $60,562
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.66×
• Total profit: $147,308
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14882

• Home prices YoY: -11.0%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $1,151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $701

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $79,000 Pending 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $79,000 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$28/yr (+$2/mo · 2.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥95°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,072
• − Management: −$2,072
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $13,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,206
• After-tax cash flow: $10,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lansing Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616710
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $70,215
• Composite: 50.9/100
• National rank: #1788
• State rank: #244 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lansing

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,193

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.13%
• Current HPI: 380.8807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+125.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $79,000 IBRMLS
• 2013-08-13 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,279 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.