4570 Project Rd NW · Shallotte, NC 28420

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 194 Days on market

Built 1998 0.52 ac lot Est $227k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3BR/2BA doublewide with large kitchen, plenty of cabinets with double sink in the center island. Needs a little TLC and can be yours for either a great starter home, vacation home or retirement home. Nearby Waccamaw School. No offers submitted without proof of funds and/or pre-qualification letter. Earnest money must accompany offer. Allow 2-3 business days for seller's response.

Key facts

• Fully renovated home
• 0.52 acre lot
• Built 1998

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED HOME
• ENTERTAINER'S KITCHEN
• MASSIVE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE CORNER SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Entry level: 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Foundation: block, pillar/post/pier, and other
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Workshop; Has view; Paved road access; Frontage on city street and state road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Accessible full bath
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Master suite on the main floor; Walk-in closet(s); Vaulted ceilings; Kitchen island; Ceiling fan(s); Insulated windows; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.0% in Shallotte — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#411 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waccamaw (math 47% / reading 44%, grade D-, #562 of 1,410 statewide, top 40%, 430 students, 99% FRL); West Brunswick High (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,526 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $249k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,638 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.63%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $226,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4570 Project Rd NW	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$227,500	$135	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $31,299
• Equity at exit: $107,073

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $108,625
• Equity at exit: $161,309

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28420

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $591/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,847

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $236	-5% $165	+0% $95	+5% $24	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-61	-5% $17	+0% $95	+5% $172	+10% $250
Rate	-1.0pp $220	-0.5pp $158	base $95	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-35

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,000 Active 189 DOM
7. 2026-05-21
   price $249,000
8. 2026-02-07
   price $254,000
9. 2026-01-20
   price $256,000
10. 2025-11-21
    listed $261,000 Active
11. 2009-10-16
    soldstatus $68,000 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Nice 3BR/2BA doublewide with large kitchen, plenty of cabinets with double sink in the center island. Needs a little TLC and can be yours for either a great starter home, vacation home or retirement home. Nearby Waccamaw School. No offers submitted without proof of funds and/or pre-qualification letter. Earnest money must accompany offer. Allow 2-3 business days for seller's response.

12. 2009-09-01
    listed $71,900 387-char remark

    Show marketing remark (387 chars)

    Nice 3BR/2BA doublewide with large kitchen, plenty of cabinets with double sink in the center island. Needs a little TLC and can be yours for either a great starter home, vacation home or retirement home. Nearby Waccamaw School. No offers submitted without proof of funds and/or pre-qualification letter. Earnest money must accompany offer. Allow 2-3 business days for seller's response.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $591 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,451/yr (+$121/mo · 245.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$591
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$3,206
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$770
• After-tax cash flow: $1,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Shallotte

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #411
• US rank: #15490

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,219
• Population (ZIP): 2,697

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 10% Native American 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Current HPI: 154.7713
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+246.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $249,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $254,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $256,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $261,000 Hive MLS
• 2009-10-16 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Hive MLS
• 2009-09-01 Listed $71,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $591 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.