413 31st St · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2004 5,998 sqft lot Est $220k · 36% under ↓ 12% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential in this spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home located in Hidalgo, TX. Perfect for first-time homebuyers or savvy investors, this property offers a functional layout and a solid foundation to create your dream space. Enjoy an open-concept living area featuring unique architectural details like arched entryways and high, vaulted ceilings. A bright kitchen with ample cabinet space, a breakfast bar, and stainless steel refrigerator. Classic brick exterior with decorative columns and a charming palm tree out front. Situated in a quiet neighborhood, you’ll have quick access to local schools, parks, and the Hidalgo International Bridge. At this price point, this home is

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Ample cabinet space
• Arched entryways

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ARCHED ENTRYWAYS
• HIGH VAULTED CEILINGS
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hidalgo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Valley View ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #631 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valley View South El (math 50% / reading 70%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 341 students, 97% FRL); Valley View J H (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 95% FRL); Valley View H S (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,170 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,900 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,834
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3110 E Brazil St	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,605 (+1%)	12mo	$265,000	$165	72
2823 Tampico St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-3%)	4mo	$194,999	$126	70
2810 Dalia Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+12%)	12mo	$199,000	$112	65
401 N 30th St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (+14%)	6mo	$289,000	$160	63
3008 E Brazil Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,744 (+10%)	10mo	$280,000	$161	62
2800 N Dalia Cir	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+12%)	14mo	$195,000	$110	60
406 28th St	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,433 (-10%)	16mo	$101,500	$71	56
301 N 30th St	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (+14%)	3mo	$295,000	$163	55
2202 E Esperanza Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-4%)	14mo	$210,000	$138	54
2111 E Ithica Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-4%)	16mo	$205,000	$134	50
2703 Torreon St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,371 (-14%)	2mo	$239,000	$174	43
2114 Monterrey St	0.75mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (-12%)	2mo	$179,500	$128	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $89,424
• Equity at exit: $126,123

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.46×
• Total profit: $253,287
• Equity at exit: $271,989

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,788/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,403

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2509 Coma St Hidalgo, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$1,750	$0.97	23d	1	0.39mi
704 S 17th St Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1666	$1,650	$0.99	23d	1	1.00mi
607 Buccaneer Dr Unit 4 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	44d	1	1.17mi
605 Buccaneer Dr Unit 3 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,400	$1.31	23d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   historical Option
3. 2026-03-25
   price $140,000
4. 2026-03-17
   price $150,000
5. 2026-03-11
   listed $160,000 Active
6. 2007-04-30
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,788 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,788 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,788
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,596
• − Management: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$85
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,158
• Composite: 25.37/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #631 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $140,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $150,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $160,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2007-04-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,788 · -8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.