7538 Anastasia Street Pr · Venus, TX 76084

$411,188

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,849 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 $222/sqft · 9% below area Est $450k · 9% under ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

7538 Anastasia Street, Prairie Ridge, TX 76084: Coming home is the best part of every day in the beautiful and spacious Peterson floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodland. Leave the outside world behind and lavish in the elegance of your Owner's Retreat, featuring a superb en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The contemporary kitchen includes ample room devoted to presentation, meal prep, dining and storage. Open-concept living spaces present an distinguished first impression from the front door. Your open floor plan provides an inviting atmosphere to host quiet evenings and impressive social gatherings. Both secondary bedrooms offer wonderful places to grow. Welcome guests and achieve your business goals in the versatile front study. Call the David Weekley Homes at Goodland Team to build your future with the peace of mind our Industry-leading Warranty adds to your new home in Grand Prairie, Texas

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Contemporary kitchen
• Open floor plan

Tags

• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VERSATILE FRONT STUDY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $411k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (46.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (46.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,932 (46.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.34%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,048
• List price: $411,188
• Delta: -8.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7511 Anastasia St	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,740 (-6%)	1mo	$405,032	$233	84
3357 Redbud Flower Trl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+4%)	2mo	$419,990	$219	78
3309 Redbud Flower	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-1%)	4mo	$414,990	$228	75
3738 Long Stem St	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+14%)	2mo	$446,105	$212	70
7161 Red Twig Trl	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+0%)	4mo	$372,000	$201	69
7345 Mistflower Mdws	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,967 (+6%)	2mo	$395,000	$201	68
7302 Aster Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,992 (+8%)	2mo	$369,900	$186	67
6938 Aster Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,960 (+6%)	1mo	$375,000	$191	62
7306 Mallow Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	2,112 (+14%)	4mo	$424,990	$201	61
7346 Red Twig Trl	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,065 (+12%)	1mo	$340,000	$165	59
3514 Beepalm Ave	0.29mi	3/2.5	2,112 (+14%)	3mo	$399,990	$189	59
4314 Lombardy Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,661 (-10%)	1mo	$350,000	$211	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $76,889
• Equity at exit: $293,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $275,281
• Equity at exit: $565,720

Cash invested: $115,133 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,156
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,168/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-1,155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,681

Max offer price $244,083

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,797
• Closing costs: $12,336
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $411,188 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $411,188 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $411,188 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $411,188 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $411,188 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $411,188 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $411,188 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $411,188 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $409,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $409,990 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $409,990 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,990 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,990 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $409,990 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    7538 Anastasia Street, Prairie Ridge, TX 76084: Coming home is the best part of every day in the beautiful and spacious Peterson floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodland. Leave the outside world behind and lavish in the elegance of your Owner's Retreat, featuring a superb en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The contemporary kitchen includes ample room devoted to presentation, meal prep, dining and storage. Open-concept living spaces present an distinguished first impression from the front door. Your open floor plan provides an inviting atmosphere to host quiet evenings and impressive social gatherings. Both secondary bedrooms offer wonderful places to grow. Welcome guests and achieve your business goals in the versatile front study. Call the David Weekley Homes at Goodland Team to build your future with the peace of mind our Industry-leading Warranty adds to your new home in Grand Prairie, Texas

15. 2026-04-14
    listed $415,177 Active 915-char remark

    Show marketing remark (915 chars)

    7538 Anastasia Street, Prairie Ridge, TX 76084: Coming home is the best part of every day in the beautiful and spacious Peterson floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodland. Leave the outside world behind and lavish in the elegance of your Owner's Retreat, featuring a superb en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. The contemporary kitchen includes ample room devoted to presentation, meal prep, dining and storage. Open-concept living spaces present an distinguished first impression from the front door. Your open floor plan provides an inviting atmosphere to host quiet evenings and impressive social gatherings. Both secondary bedrooms offer wonderful places to grow. Welcome guests and achieve your business goals in the versatile front study. Call the David Weekley Homes at Goodland Team to build your future with the peace of mind our Industry-leading Warranty adds to your new home in Grand Prairie, Texas

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,033
• − Property taxes: −$6,168
• − Insurance: −$2,853
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$11,962
• Taxable loss: −$21,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,195
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Listed $415,177 Zillow