6138 Bethlehem Ln · North Syracuse, NY 13039

$195,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,210 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1989 4,791 sqft lot Est $207k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious end unit townhome! When you walk up to this home you will notice the newer brick sidewalk leading to the welcoming front porch - a perfect spot to sit and have coffee in the morning or relax at the end of the day. Entering this home the foyer greets you with new flooring, which leads to the kitchen. The kitchen pass-thru to the dining room allows for easy conversation while providing views into the living room and outside. The dining area leads to a vaulted stepdown living room. Plenty of room for entertaining or spending a relaxing day at home. This townhome also has new six panel doors on the lower level and a new half bath! Ascending to the second floor you wi

Key facts

• New flooring
• New six panel doors
• Kitchen pass-thru

Tags

• NEWER BRICK SIDEWALK
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• NEW FLOORING
• KITCHEN PASS-THRU
• VAULTED STEPDOWN LIVING ROOM
• NEW SIX PANEL DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with one assigned space; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Circuit breaker electrical
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.11 acres, dimensions 38 x 129)
• Construction: Asphalt roof; Cedar construction; Copper plumbing; Full basement with sump pump
• Exterior features: Deck; Open porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms include living areas and entry foyer (5 total rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Separate/formal living room; Living/dining room; Sliding glass door(s); Skylights; Window treatments; Drapes; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-168/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 5.1% in North Syracuse — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#379 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• North Syracuse Central School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #402 of 590 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $188,161 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.31%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,910
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6147 Bethlehem Ln	0.04mi	2/1.5	1,226 (+1%)	15mo	$172,500	$141	83
6111 Bethlehem Ln	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,080 (-11%)	5mo	$190,000	$176	75
6109 Bethlehem Ln	0.06mi	2/1.5	1,080 (-11%)	18mo	$185,000	$171	64
8828 New Country Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,314 (+9%)	4mo	$225,000	$171	52
6121 Diffin Rd	0.42mi	2/1.5	1,374 (+14%)	10mo	$235,000	$171	49
6119 Diffin Rd	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,316 (+9%)	20mo	$225,000	$171	49
6117 Diffin Rd	0.41mi	2/1.5	1,316 (+9%)	22mo	$200,000	$152	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-32,369
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-28,840
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13039

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,760/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $192,522

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $41	+0% $-14	+5% $-69	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-88	+0% $-14	+5% $60	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $84	-0.5pp $36	base $-14	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-116

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-20
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-16
   listed $195,000 Active
3. 2001-07-02
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,760 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,760 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,760
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,806
• − Management: −$1,806
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Syracuse Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,904
• Composite: 41.93/100
• National rank: #3356
• State rank: #402 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Syracuse

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #379
• US rank: #6513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,185
• Population (ZIP): 17,184

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Asian 3% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada, Mexico
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.98%
• Current HPI: 314.7902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+225.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $195,000 CNYIS
• 2001-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,760 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.