3442 E Deer Run Ln · Hernando, FL 34442

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1980 2,991 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION, CLOSE TO OCALA. 1 BR/1BA MOBILE HOME MOVE IN CONDITION, GREAT WINTER RETREAT.

Key facts

• Smart toilet
• New well pump
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SMART TOILET
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEW WELL PUMP
• IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned LDRMH; Lot is level and paved (approximately 0.07 acres); One well and one septic on property; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Paved access (public maintained road)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding on frame construction; Roof over; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Private mailbox; Chain link and wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Mini-split cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $239 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#402 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 444 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $120k implies a 1076% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.54%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,256
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $15,755
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34442

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 444
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $939

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2014-01-22
   soldstatus $10,200 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION, CLOSE TO OCALA. 1 BR/1BA MOBILE HOME MOVE IN CONDITION, GREAT WINTER RETREAT.

4. 2013-08-26
   listed $12,000 94-char remark

   Show marketing remark (94 chars)

   GREAT LOCATION, CLOSE TO OCALA. 1 BR/1BA MOBILE HOME MOVE IN CONDITION, GREAT WINTER RETREAT.

5. 1980-06-01
   soldstatus $12,500
6. 1977-04-01
   soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $750 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 32.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$228
• After-tax cash flow: $2,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #402
• US rank: #7137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hernando, FL
• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 17,281
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,281
• Household income: $57,259
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 314.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.70%
• Current HPI: 273.3262
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1311.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-01-22 Sold (MLS) $10,200 RACC
• 2013-08-26 Listed $12,000 RACC
• 1980-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records
• 1977-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $750 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.