1301 E Avenue I #370 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · Manufactured public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $189k · at est. ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the space and comfort of a triple-wide mobile home in a friendly, well-maintained community. Close the clubhouse, the park area. This property has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a living room area, a dining room area, a lot of cabinets in the kitchen, etc. Please don't wait too long to see it.

Key facts

• Park area
• Built 1979
• Listed 230 days

Tags

• TRIPLE-WIDE MOBILE HOME
• CLOSE TO THE CLUBHOUSE
• PARK AREA
• LOT OF CABINETS IN THE KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Friendly Village; Manager approval required for occupancy; Triple body type (multi-unit designation); Lot density approximately 0–1 unit per acre; Directions: East Ave I to 15th St E
• HOA & community: Land lease in park (approximately $572/month); Park community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Friendly Village park
• Utilities: Public (district) water; Sewer or septic (unknown)
• Home design: Single-story mobile home (12' x 60'); Mobile home remains on site
• Construction: Year built per assessor; Assessor-provided living area
• Exterior features: No pool

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Single-level entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,992/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2494% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.96%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,848
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1301 E Avenue I #238	0.00mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-2%)	11mo	$185,000	$116	83
1501 E Avenue I #138	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,608 (-1%)	11mo	$199,000	$124	78
1301 E Avenue I Spc 246	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	1mo	$130,000	$90	75
1501 E I Ave #125	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (-0%)	11mo	$175,000	$108	74
1301 E Avenue I #6	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	6mo	$190,000	$132	74
1501 E Avenue I #135	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	7mo	$155,000	$108	59
1501 E Avenue I #148	0.24mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,848 (+14%)	2mo	$198,400	$107	56
1301 East Ave I #36	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	18mo	$185,000	$128	53
45800 Challenger Way #304	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	5mo	$169,000	$117	46
45800 Challenger Way #181	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-12%)	1mo	$159,000	$110	44
45800 Challenger Way Spc 80	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-7%)	14mo	$165,000	$109	43
45800 Challenger Way #206	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,440 (-12%)	15mo	$180,000	$125	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $38,077
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $100,981
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,992 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $397/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$628
• Net cashflow: $1,227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45041 Colleen Dr Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1303	$3,100	$2.38	1d	1	0.50mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$3,000	$2.38	21d	1	0.67mi
837 Sunrise Ct Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1259	$2,895	$2.30	3d	1	0.67mi
44732 12th St E Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,600	$1.82	15d	1	0.86mi
45402 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1237	$2,775	$2.24	1d	1	0.86mi
44908 Logue Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1473	$2,495	$1.69	1d	1	0.86mi
1734 Lightcap St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,700	$1.84	1d	1	0.87mi
45428 Raysack Ave Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1244	$2,900	$2.33	1d	1	0.90mi
1004 E Newgrove St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,800	$2.41	1d	1	0.97mi
45465 25th St E Spc 10 Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1690	$825	$0.49	2d	1	1.01mi
44961 5th St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,500	$2.00	1d	1	1.05mi
1253 Morven St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,995	$1.65	15d	1	1.08mi
45426 Stanridge Ave Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1443	$2,975	$2.06	15d	1	1.15mi
1647 Orchid Ln Lancaster, CA	3.0	3.0	1084	$1,950	$1.80	21d	1	1.16mi
44946 3rd St E Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1256	$2,395	$1.91	15d	1	1.26mi
766 E Pillsbury St Lancaster, CA	5.0	2.0	1604	$2,500	$1.56	10d	1	1.28mi
2634 Avoca St Lancaster, CA	4.0	3.0	1722	$3,200	$1.86	1d	1	1.39mi
45027 Division St Lancaster, CA	3.0	2.0	1221	$2,600	$2.13	1d	1	1.48mi
44707 Cerisa St Lancaster, CA	4.0	2.0	1714	$3,000	$1.75	10d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 227 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 225 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 224 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 220 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 219 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $195,000
16. 2026-05-05
    price $195,500 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Experience the space and comfort of a triple-wide mobile home in a friendly, well-maintained community. Close the clubhouse, the park area. This property has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a living room area, a dining room area, a lot of cabinets in the kitchen, etc. Please don't wait too long to see it.

17. 2025-12-18
    price $214,000 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Experience the space and comfort of a triple-wide mobile home in a friendly, well-maintained community. Close the clubhouse, the park area. This property has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a living room area, a dining room area, a lot of cabinets in the kitchen, etc. Please don't wait too long to see it.

18. 2025-12-18
    price $214,000

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Experience the space and comfort of a triple-wide mobile home in a friendly, well-maintained community. Close the clubhouse, the park area. This property has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a living room area, a dining room area, a lot of cabinets in the kitchen, etc. Please don't wait too long to see it.

19. 2025-10-31
    listed $230,000 Active
20. 2025-10-30
    listed $230,000 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    Experience the space and comfort of a triple-wide mobile home in a friendly, well-maintained community. Close the clubhouse, the park area. This property has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a living room area, a dining room area, a lot of cabinets in the kitchen, etc. Please don't wait too long to see it.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $397 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,482 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,085/yr (+$90/mo · 273.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,903
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$397
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,872
• − Management: −$2,872
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $12,191
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,926
• After-tax cash flow: $11,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-15.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $195,500 AVMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $214,000 AVMLS
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $214,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $230,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $230,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $397 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.