7156 Bowie Dr · Stonecrest, GA 30038

$199,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2002 6,534 sqft lot $123/sqft · 19% below area Est $248k · 19% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready single-story home in Chestnut Lake Preserve! Features a partially finished basement, fireplace, central A/C, updated kitchen appliances, and carpet/vinyl flooring. Zoned for Murphy Candler Elementary, Salem Middle, and MLK Jr. High. Level lot, friendly HOA, and convenient location.

Key facts

• Central a/c
• Fireplace
• 6,534 sq ft lot

Tags

• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• FIREPLACE
• CENTRAL A/C
• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• CARPET/VINYL FLOORING
• ZONED FOR SALEM MIDDLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($261/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.1% in Stonecrest — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 320 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.47%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,007
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -19.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6901 Malvern Ct	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,624 (-0%)	0mo	$245,000	$151	97
7012 Setters Way	0.13mi	4/3.5	1,586 (-2%)	5mo	$194,000	$122	84
7074 Ravenwood Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,508 (-7%)	5mo	$240,000	$159	68
6684 Browns Mill Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+1%)	3mo	$245,000	$150	68
7069 Ravenwood Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-6%)	5mo	$205,000	$135	68
7037 Mahonia Pl	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,506 (-7%)	3mo	$200,000	$133	67
6595 Browns Mill Ferry Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+1%)	6mo	$215,000	$131	66
6716 Browns Mill Ferry Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,524 (-6%)	7mo	$251,000	$165	59
4273 Chestnut Lake Ave	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,515 (-7%)	0mo	$240,800	$159	58
4237 Chestnut Lake Ave	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,469 (-10%)	2mo	$200,000	$136	50
6731 Browns Mill Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,398 (-14%)	4mo	$223,700	$160	45
6572 Chestnut Oaks Rdg	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,497 (-8%)	6mo	$195,000	$130	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,586
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,767
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30038

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,905/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7132 Bowie Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1571	$1,904	$1.21	12d	1	0.06mi
7152 Ravenwood Ln Lithonia, GA	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,915	$1.28	43d	1	0.06mi
7020 Setters Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1573	$1,819	$1.16	43d	1	0.10mi
6989 Setters Way Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1526	$1,795	$1.18	5d	1	0.11mi
4868 Browns Mill Ferry Rd Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1606	$1,927	$1.20	43d	1	0.11mi
4848 Browns Mill Ferry Rd Lithonia, GA	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,195	$1.20	24d	1	0.12mi
6857 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	2192	$1,795	$0.82	43d	1	0.13mi
6858 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1580	$1,695	$1.07	43d	1	0.14mi
6940 Red Bone Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1494	$1,949	$1.30	5d	1	0.16mi
7078 Bowie Dr Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1571	$1,781	$1.13	43d	1	0.17mi
7093 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,895	$1.26	24d	1	0.22mi
6957 Mahonia Pl Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,931	$1.24	43d	1	0.24mi
6626 Browns Mill Ferry Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,820	$1.32	2d	1	0.40mi
6700 Browns Mill Ferry Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,765	$1.11	5d	1	0.52mi
6613 Chestnut Oaks Rdg Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,985	$1.38	5d	1	0.63mi
6530 Lake Mill Ct Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.0	2233	$1,640	$0.73	12d	1	0.78mi
6506 Chestnut Lake Xing Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	2014	$2,060	$1.02	3d	1	0.85mi
6274 Varnay Ct Stonecrest, GA	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,915	$1.34	15d	1	0.94mi
6354 Klondike River Rd Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1521	$1,830	$1.20	43d	1	0.96mi
6609 Carmen Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,200	$0.73	17d	1	0.99mi
5014 River Overlook Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	2017	$2,060	$1.02	24d	1	1.04mi
6625 Paula Ct Unit Labs Stonecrest, GA	4.0	2.0	1925	$2,000	$1.04	18d	1	1.06mi
6265 Leverett Dr Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,595	$1.16	24d	1	1.07mi
4436 Jackam Ridge Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,080	$1.05	5d	1	1.08mi
6295 Klondike River Rd Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1742	$1,930	$1.11	5d	1	1.08mi
4651 Jackam Ridge Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,970	$1.37	43d	1	1.09mi
4393 English Loop Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	19d	1	1.17mi
6467 Gina Agha Cir Lithonia, GA	5.0	2.5	1939	$2,159	$1.11	21d	1	1.20mi
4675 Forest Creek Ln Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1854	$2,200	$1.19	43d	1	1.21mi
4636 Forest Creek Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.5	1476	$1,650	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
4584 Garden City Dr Lithonia, GA	4.0	2.5	1958	$2,300	$1.17	1d	1	1.26mi
6215 Klondike River Rd Lithonia, GA	4.0	3.0	2048	$1,875	$0.92	5d	1	1.28mi
4756 Golod Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,820	$1.15	24d	1	1.31mi
4744 Golod Way Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,695	$1.07	43d	1	1.32mi
6950 Carleen Ct Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,945	$1.09	12d	1	1.32mi
6269 Cathedral Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1328	$1,725	$1.30	12d	1	1.34mi
4609 Post Ridge Ln Lithonia, GA	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,855	$1.21	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $199,900 Price Change 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,900 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    statusdays on market $214,900 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Price Change 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $219,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Move-in ready single-story home in Chestnut Lake Preserve! Features a partially finished basement, fireplace, central A/C, updated kitchen appliances, and carpet/vinyl flooring. Zoned for Murphy Candler Elementary, Salem Middle, and MLK Jr. High. Level lot, friendly HOA, and convenient location.

15. 2026-04-24
    price $229,900 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Move-in ready single-story home in Chestnut Lake Preserve! Features a partially finished basement, fireplace, central A/C, updated kitchen appliances, and carpet/vinyl flooring. Zoned for Murphy Candler Elementary, Salem Middle, and MLK Jr. High. Level lot, friendly HOA, and convenient location.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $234,900 New 296-char remark

    Show marketing remark (296 chars)

    Move-in ready single-story home in Chestnut Lake Preserve! Features a partially finished basement, fireplace, central A/C, updated kitchen appliances, and carpet/vinyl flooring. Zoned for Murphy Candler Elementary, Salem Middle, and MLK Jr. High. Level lot, friendly HOA, and convenient location.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,905 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,905 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,905
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$713
• After-tax cash flow: $974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stonecrest

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stonecrest, GA
• County: Dekalb County · 782,738 people
• City population: 106,165
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 43,776
• Household income: $73,694
• Rent vs Own: 35.3% rent · 64.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1168.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% White 4% Asian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.98%
• Current HPI: 192.8328
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $219,900 GAMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $229,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $234,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,905 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.