12204 Littlerock Rd SW · Tumwater, WA 98512

$249,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · Manufactured public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1987 10,454 sqft lot $220/sqft · 69% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming & Move-In Ready on a Spacious . 25 Acre! This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers comfort, style, and room to enjoy the outdoors. Step inside to a bright, open layout, a spacious living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a welcoming kitchen with eating bar. Thoughtful updates throughout include a built-in china hutch adding both character and functionality. Enjoy outdoor living year-round on the large covered deck overlooking the generous yard with fruit tree, garden space, and plenty of room to personalize your own outdoor retreat. Additional features include, utility shed for extra storage, and secured runner & tie downs. Situated on a quarter acre with shared w

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Utility shed
• Large covered deck

Tags

• SPACIOUS YARD
• BUILT-IN CHINA HUTCH
• LARGE COVERED DECK
• FRUIT TREE
• GARDEN SPACE
• UTILITY SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-290/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $250k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $195,623 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,356
• List price: $249,950
• Delta: 66.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-43,555
• Equity at exit: $37,268

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,028
• Equity at exit: $21,611

Cash invested: $69,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,956 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,856/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $245,681

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $47	+0% $-24	+5% $-95	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-101	+0% $-24	+5% $53	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $39	base $-24	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,488
• Closing costs: $7,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,950 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,950 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,950 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,950 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,950 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $249,950 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   status $249,950 Pending 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,950 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,950 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,950 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,950 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,950 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-04-23
    status Active
14. 2026-04-09
    listed $249,950 Active
15. 2009-06-05
    soldstatus $100,101 Sold
16. 2009-04-20
    historical
17. 2009-04-10
    listed $100,000
18. 2006-04-14
    soldstatus $126,000
19. 2006-04-14
    soldstatus $126,000
20. 2005-07-11
    listed $126,900
21. 2002-10-29
    soldstatus $88,700
22. 2002-06-05
    listed $89,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,856 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,450 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$593/yr (+$49/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,001
• − Property taxes: −$1,856
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$7,271
• Taxable loss: −$4,659
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+179.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Listed $249,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-06-05 Sold (MLS) $100,101 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-20 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-10 Listed $100,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-14 Sold (MLS) $126,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-11 Listed $126,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-10-29 Sold (MLS) $88,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-06-05 Listed $89,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,856 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.