1612 Campos Dr · The Villages, FL 32162

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,121 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 124 Days on market

Built 1998 3,560 sqft lot Est $256k · 10% under $199/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2 bedroom 2 bath patio villa home in the gated Village of Alhambra! Bond PAID. ROOF 2020. HVAC 2014. Newer water heater, newer kitchen cabinet doors. Very well maintained, 1 owner. Primary bedroom features private ensuite bath and walk in closet. Enjoy your morning coffee in the enclosed lanai or the outdoor patio. Both the outdoor patio and driveway are upgraded with brick pavers. Eat in kitchen has skylight and closet pantry. Home equipped with gutters and irrigation system. Also has 2 citrus trees in yard - grapefruit and tangerine. Furniture included if desired. Excellent location - close to dining, medical, shopping, recreation - approx 1 mile to the Savannah Center, appr

Key facts

• Hvac 2014
• Roof 2020
• Bond paid

Tags

• TURNKEY
• BOND PAID
• ROOF 2020
• HVAC 2014
• NEWER WATER HEATER
• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,793/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $230k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,588
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1612 Campos Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	0mo	$230,000	$205	100
1647 Campos Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$223	93
2603 Olivarez Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,121 (0%)	2mo	$252,000	$225	91
2604 Privada Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+8%)	0mo	$269,000	$222	78
10235 SE 179th Pl	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+2%)	2mo	$180,599	$158	66
1423 Conchas Dr	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+3%)	1mo	$282,000	$245	65
2981 Fair Oak Ter	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,164 (+4%)	0mo	$330,000	$284	61
1480 Azteca Loop	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,185 (+6%)	1mo	$270,000	$228	61
1487 Azteca Loop	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,192 (+6%)	0mo	$299,900	$252	59
2731 Privada Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	2mo	$250,000	$200	56
1410 Almanza Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0	1,174 (+5%)	2mo	$305,000	$260	56
1418 Azteca	0.71mi	2/1.0	986 (-12%)	2mo	$249,000	$253	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,027
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $62,215
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,793 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,384/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,045

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $721	-5% $656	+0% $591	+5% $525	+10% $460
Rent	-10% $370	-5% $480	+0% $591	+5% $701	+10% $811
Rate	-1.0pp $706	-0.5pp $649	base $591	+0.5pp $531	+1.0pp $470

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2909 Meadow Lawn Ln The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,300	$3.80	22d	1	0.62mi
1648 Belle Grove Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1132	$4,250	$3.75	22d	1	0.64mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	22d	1	0.78mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	0.88mi
1808 Peachtree Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	22d	1	0.93mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	0.93mi
17532 SE 100th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1217	$1,800	$1.48	22d	1	0.95mi
10397 SE 176th St Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1296	$2,150	$1.66	22d	1	0.97mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	22d	1	0.98mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	22d	1	1.26mi
17199 SE 97th Ter Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,990	$1.42	22d	1	1.30mi
13957 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1482	$1,650	$1.11	22d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $229,900
3. 2025-12-06
   listed $239,900 Active
4. 1998-02-17
   soldstatus $72,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,384 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 37.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,384
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,681
• − Management: −$2,681
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable income: $3,664
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$879
• After-tax cash flow: $6,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+215.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-06 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $72,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,384 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.