1631 E Hayes St · Pensacola, FL 32503

$299,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1952 9,583 sqft lot $168/sqft · 19% below area Est $369k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the best of Pensacola living at 1631 E Hayes St, a charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom brick ranch that perfectly balances classic Southern character with modern versatility. Spanning over 1,780 square feet, this home greets you with a deep, welcoming front porch—the ideal spot for morning coffee or enjoying the coastal breeze. Inside, the spacious floor plan is anchored by a massive 21-foot living room and a bright kitchen-dining combo featuring beautiful original hardwood flooring. While the home is full of character and ready for immediate use, it is a property that invites a little extra love and cosmetic updating to truly shine and reach its full potential. This property of

Key facts

• Front porch
• Private entrance
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE ENTRANCE
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• DEDICATED STORAGE SHED
• QUICK ACCESS TO BEACH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Publicly maintained road access
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Front entrance parking; Guest parking; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Circuit breakers and copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: One-story brick residence; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homesteaded
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built as a one-level home
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Front porch; Shingle roof; Central access lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first level, approx. 16.3' x 16.5'; Bedroom on the first level, approx. 9.5' x 13.2'; Bedroom on the first level, approx. 11.7' x 9.6'; Bedroom on the first level, approx. 11.5' x 9.8'
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling; Ceiling fans for additional cooling
• Interior features: Baseboards; Ceiling fans; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer/Dryer hookups; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.6% in Pensacola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#53 in FL, #924 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,952/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 948% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $235k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.02%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,204
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -18.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1631 E Maura St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (-8%)	1mo	$153,000	$93	71
1402 E Leonard St	0.23mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,917 (+8%)	1mo	$255,000	$133	65
1149 E Hayes St	0.46mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,848 (+4%)	1mo	$475,000	$257	61
1421 E Texar Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,938 (+9%)	0mo	$544,000	$281	60
3705 N 12th Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,852 (+4%)	1mo	$335,000	$181	57
444 Woodbine Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,860 (+4%)	2mo	$475,000	$255	56
1918 N 17th Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+1%)	1mo	$275,000	$153	54
1714 E Hatton St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (-13%)	2mo	$540,000	$347	54
1350 E Scott St	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,950 (+9%)	1mo	$625,000	$321	52
1613 E Yonge St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,579 (-11%)	3mo	$575,000	$364	48
1121 E Maxwell St	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,716 (-4%)	4mo	$492,000	$287	46
1412 E Bobe St	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,015 (+13%)	4mo	$725,000	$360	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-29,508
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,285
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32503

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,241/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,596

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $366	+0% $281	+5% $196	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $48	-5% $164	+0% $281	+5% $398	+10% $514
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $357	base $281	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3014 Magnolia Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,750	$1.67	24d	1	0.23mi
1501 E Cross St Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1920	$3,200	$1.67	24d	1	0.26mi
1501 E Cross St Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1920	$3,000	$1.56	14d	1	0.26mi
1301 E Cross St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	2200	$3,900	$1.77	14d	1	0.38mi
1121 E Maxwell St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1716	$3,550	$2.07	24d	1	0.70mi
1414 E Mallory St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1323	$3,400	$2.57	24d	1	0.88mi
3547 Firestone Blvd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,695	$1.35	24d	1	0.92mi
3545 Hopestill Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.0	1984	$2,400	$1.21	24d	1	0.97mi
3791 Maule Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	3.0	2000	$3,250	$1.62	24d	1	0.98mi
1704 E Lee St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$2,295	$1.87	24d	1	1.07mi
3019 Keats Dr Pensacola, FL	4.0	2.5	2484	$4,400	$1.77	24d	1	1.25mi
4400 N 9th Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1713	$2,000	$1.17	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 48 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $300,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    price $320,000 1790-char remark
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $330,000 Active 1790-char remark
17. 2026-04-17
    historical
18. 2026-03-15
    price $330,000
19. 2026-02-04
    price $334,000
20. 2026-01-16
    price $344,000
21. 2025-11-14
    listed $349,000 Active
22. 2023-10-04
    historical
23. 2023-09-12
    status Active
24. 2023-09-12
    price $325,000
25. 2023-08-17
    status Pending
26. 2023-08-07
    historical Contingent
27. 2023-07-20
    price $347,000
28. 2023-06-02
    status Active
29. 2023-06-01
    historical Contingent
30. 2023-05-18
    price $349,000
31. 2023-05-17
    status Active
32. 2023-05-15
    historical Contingent
33. 2023-04-07
    listed $359,000 Active
34. 2022-10-18
    historical
35. 2022-09-24
    price $379,000
36. 2022-08-31
    listed $389,000 Active
37. 2021-12-21
    soldstatus $235,000
38. 2021-12-21
    status Pending
39. 2021-12-20
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
40. 2021-11-25
    historical Contingent
41. 2021-11-04
    price $230,000
42. 2021-10-27
    price $235,000
43. 2021-10-12
    status Active
44. 2021-10-05
    status Pending
45. 2021-09-09
    listed $249,000 Active
46. 1988-06-01
    soldstatus $25,000
47. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $22,400
48. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $30,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,241 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,241 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,241
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,834
• − Management: −$2,834
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$1,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pensacola

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #924

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pensacola, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 237,636
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,559
• Household income: $71,411
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 948.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.02%
• Current HPI: 294.4873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+896.3% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $299,900 PARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $300,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $320,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $330,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $334,000 PARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $344,000 PARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $349,000 PARMLS
• 2023-10-04 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-09-12 Price Changed $325,000 PARMLS
• 2023-08-17 Pending — PARMLS
• 2023-08-07 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-07-20 Price Changed $347,000 PARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-06-01 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-05-18 Price Changed $349,000 PARMLS
• 2023-05-17 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-05-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-04-07 Listed $359,000 PARMLS
• 2022-10-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2022-09-24 Price Changed $379,000 PARMLS
• 2022-08-31 Listed $389,000 PARMLS
• 2021-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-21 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Sold (MLS) $235,000 PARMLS
• 2021-11-25 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2021-11-04 Price Changed $230,000 PARMLS
• 2021-10-27 Price Changed $235,000 PARMLS
• 2021-10-12 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Pending — PARMLS
• 2021-09-09 Listed $249,000 PARMLS
• 1988-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,400 Public Records
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,241 · +15.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.