Jackson Plan · Allenhurst, GA 31301

$289,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,926 sqft · SingleFamily · 949 Days on market

Excellent condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom ranch, boasting BRICK with low-maintenance vinyl accents, is located in the peaceful countryside of Tibet Road at Sassafras. Cross the threshold into a an open, stylish layout featuring an electric fireplace as the focal point in the great room. The expansive kitchen featuring attractive island layout, quartz countertops, upgraded cabinetry, and large corner pantry, is lovely and spacious. The primary bedroom includes two walk-in closets, a linen closet, and private bath with separate tub and shower. The other three bedrooms, situated on the opposite side of this split floor plan allow for maximum privacy and have ample closet space. A breezy, covered back porch is a great spot to relax and enjoy the back yard. Artistic rendering(s) is for informational purposes only. Actual floor plans and inclusions may vary.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 948 days

🏗️ New construction. The $289,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,091.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-330 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (24.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#319 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Long County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #115 of 174 in GA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smiley Elementary School (1,258 students, 67% FRL); Long County Middle School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 945 students, 69% FRL); Long County High School (math 37% / reading 22%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 1,209 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 298 units permitted in Long County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $455 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Long County population projected at +72% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 949 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $218,401 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 949 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,091
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -1.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 Cloverfield Dr SE	0.98mi	4/3.0	1,984 (+3%)	2mo	$305,725	$154	54
321 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.93mi	4/2.0	1,926 (0%)	13mo	$305,975	$159	54
575 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.96mi	4/2.5	2,002 (+4%)	8mo	$299,925	$150	50
593 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.96mi	4/2.0	1,735 (-10%)	8mo	$298,090	$172	42
859 Hunters Ln SE	0.93mi	4/2.5	2,151 (+12%)	4mo	$301,205	$140	40
190 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.91mi	4/2.0	1,735 (-10%)	13mo	$301,475	$174	38
107 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.91mi	4/2.0	1,735 (-10%)	14mo	$285,725	$165	37
767 Deer Meadow Way SE	1.03mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+17%)	6mo	$315,525	$140	33
341 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.93mi	4/2.5	2,151 (+12%)	13mo	$299,995	$139	33
685 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.99mi	4/2.5	2,254 (+17%)	6mo	$315,825	$140	33
856 Hunters Ln SE	0.94mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+17%)	5mo	$309,925	$137	27
159 Deer Meadow Way SE	0.93mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,256 (+17%)	14mo	$306,775	$136	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-27,400
• Equity at exit: $87,389

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-9,832
• Equity at exit: $106,886

Cash invested: $82,065 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 15.0 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $272,450 ($132/sqft)
• Median days on market: 117 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31301

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,396/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,602

Max offer price $245,322

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-229	+0% $-330	+5% $-431	+10% $-533
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-416	+0% $-330	+5% $-244	+10% $-158
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-256	base $-330	+0.5pp $-406	+1.0pp $-483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,273
• Closing costs: $8,793
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9635 Tibet Hwy SE Allenhurst, GA	5.0	3.5	2400	$2,600	$1.08	184d	1	0.59mi
43 Sandy Run Rd SE Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	184d	1	0.66mi
1732 Talmadge Rd Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,650	$1.16	2d	1	1.24mi
3028 Arnall Dr Allenhurst, GA	4.0	2.0	1627	$2,100	$1.29	1d	1	1.25mi
44 Pointer Ct Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1590	$1,650	$1.04	10d	1	1.31mi
25 Jefferson Cir SE Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,595	$1.19	9d	1	1.39mi
16 Retriever Way Allenhurst, GA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,590	$1.22	0d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail $30/mo · $360/yr

• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 949 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 948 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $289,900 Active 947 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 946 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 945 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 943 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 941 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $289,900 Active 940 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 935 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 934 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 933 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 932 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 931 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 930 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 929 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 928 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 927 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 926 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 925 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 924 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 923 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 922 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 921 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 920 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 919 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 918 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 917 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 916 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 915 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 914 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 913 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 912 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 911 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 910 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 909 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 908 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 907 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 906 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 905 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 904 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 903 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 902 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 900 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 899 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 898 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,418
• − Property taxes: −$4,396
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,097
• − Management: −$2,097
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,526
• Taxable loss: −$9,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,196
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Walthourville, GA, is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Flooring — Hardwood floors can add value and appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mcclelland Elementary School F GA #728/1,228 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Long County Middle School F GA #311/470 Nat'l #10,795/14,009 High Long County High School F GA #140/424 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Long County
• NCES district ID: 1303360
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $45,958
• Composite: 22.51/100
• National rank: #8090
• State rank: #115 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Allenhurst

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #17124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 24,669 people
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 4,933
• Household income: $65,417
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Long County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,669 people
• By 2030: 28,223 · +14.4%
• By 2040: 35,430 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 42,403 · +71.9%
• By 2075: 56,996 · +131.0%
• By 2100: 64,185 · +160.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 31% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Long

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 35.1% · R 64.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.16%
• Current HPI: 187.7716
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+6.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $289,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-03 Listed $272,900 Zillow