30 Foster Ridge Dr · Blasdell, NY 14075

$44,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1988 $49/sqft · 13% above area Est $42k · 7% over ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Eaglecrest Mobile home community. Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 2 bath home. Laminate flooring throughout. Bright and open lay out. Kitchen and baths are updated in 2021 including countertops, center island, cabinets, vanities, lighting, plumbing, and flooring. Appliances are included- gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, pantry. Master bedroom/bathroom. Main bath with walk-in shower. Master bath with tub. 1st floor laundry room with cabinets. Lots of storage. Ceiling fan in the living room. Vinyl windows as well as a shed. Lot rent includes water, garbage and taxes. Close to shopping, easy access to main roads. Square footage is different than the public record, 980 sq is from the agent measurements. Lot rent is to be paid monthly. Motivated seller.

Key facts

• Built 1988
• Listed 75 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $887 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $42k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.0% vs local median 4.5% in Blasdell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#643 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $310 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($42k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $42,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.70%
• DSCR: 4.77
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,004
• List price: $44,900
• Delta: 6.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32 Brookridge Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	2mo	$37,250	$40	88
8 N Eaglecrest Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	13mo	$31,000	$34	81
41 S Roxbury Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	3mo	$40,000	$43	79
69 S Eaglecrest Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	994 (+8%)	3mo	$52,500	$53	78
2 Vibernum Dr	0.23mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	10mo	$26,000	$28	77
50 S Roxbury Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	6mo	$84,900	$92	74
52 Waterview Pkwy	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	3mo	$65,000	$70	74
10 Vibernum Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	10mo	$23,500	$25	72
32 Waterview Pkwy	0.39mi	2/1.0	936 (+1%)	8mo	$25,000	$27	69
37 Waterview Pkwy	0.41mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	11mo	$56,000	$61	68
87 Waterview Pkwy	0.47mi	2/1.5	924 (0%)	11mo	$46,000	$50	67
17 Rippleway Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,036 (+12%)	1mo	$28,000	$27	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $52,810
• Equity at exit: $6,695

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.66×
• Total profit: $134,078
• Equity at exit: $3,882

Cash invested: $12,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,553 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$235
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $887

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $44,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $913	-5% $900	+0% $887	+5% $875	+10% $862
Rent	-10% $765	-5% $826	+0% $887	+5% $949	+10% $1,010
Rate	-1.0pp $910	-0.5pp $899	base $887	+0.5pp $876	+1.0pp $864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,225
• Closing costs: $1,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	3d	1	1.06mi
4600 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,750	$2.41	3d	13	1.07mi
3580 Sowles Rd Hamburg, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,450	$1.71	3d	1	1.15mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	3d	12	1.23mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $44,900 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $44,900 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $44,900 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $44,900 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $44,900 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $44,900 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $44,900 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $44,900 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $44,900 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $44,900 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $44,900 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $44,900 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $44,900 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $44,900 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $44,900 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $44,900 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Eaglecrest Mobile home community. Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 2 bath home. Laminate flooring throughout. Bright and open lay out. Kitchen and baths are updated in 2021 including countertops, center island, cabinets, vanities, lighting, plumbing, and flooring. Appliances are included- gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, pantry. Master bedroom/bathroom. Main bath with walk-in shower. Master bath with tub. 1st floor laundry room with cabinets. Lots of storage. Ceiling fan in the living room. Vinyl windows as well as a shed. Lot rent includes water, garbage and taxes. Close to shopping, easy access to main roads. Square footage is different than the public record, 980 sq is from the agent measurements. Lot rent is to be paid monthly. Motivated seller.

17. 2026-04-07
    listed $45,900 Active 769-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Eaglecrest Mobile home community. Welcome to this updated 2-bedroom, 2 bath home. Laminate flooring throughout. Bright and open lay out. Kitchen and baths are updated in 2021 including countertops, center island, cabinets, vanities, lighting, plumbing, and flooring. Appliances are included- gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, pantry. Master bedroom/bathroom. Main bath with walk-in shower. Master bath with tub. 1st floor laundry room with cabinets. Lots of storage. Ceiling fan in the living room. Vinyl windows as well as a shed. Lot rent includes water, garbage and taxes. Close to shopping, easy access to main roads. Square footage is different than the public record, 980 sq is from the agent measurements. Lot rent is to be paid monthly. Motivated seller.

18. 2023-11-15
    historical
19. 2023-09-06
    price $69,900
20. 2023-08-17
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,515
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,491
• − Management: −$1,491
• − Depreciation: −$1,306
• Taxable income: $10,584
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,540
• After-tax cash flow: $8,108/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Blasdell

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #643
• US rank: #12059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-43.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $44,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $45,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-15 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-17 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.