45800 Challanger Way #136 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1981 2,000 sqft lot Est $105k · 15% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-Bedroom plus a bonus room, Mobile Home in East Lancaster Space 136 this beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 2bathroom, Built in 1981 the home features a spacious and open floor Large living areas perfect for entertaining or relaxing, ,Prime Location, off Ave H and Challenger Way, with easy access to the freeway, shopping centers, movie theaters, and the fairgrounds, Affordable Living, An excellent option for first-time buyers or those looking for a cozy, low-maintenance home. Don't let this one slip by. .. .. .

Key facts

• Movie theaters
• Easy access freeway
• Shopping centers

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR
• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS FREEWAY
• SHOPPING CENTERS
• MOVIE THEATERS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Mobile home length 65', width 12'; Manufacture/Model/Manager listed as TBD; Label/Insignia: CAL214082; Serial number: PF3136A; Dec number: LA13958
• HOA & community: Park amenities include RV park, clubhouse/rec room, and recreation area; All-ages community; Park rent: $650 (new space rent); Park/space deposit: $1,500

Exterior

• Parking: Garage
• Utilities: Individual meter; Natural gas
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (1981); Located in a mobile home park (Caritas Acquisitions), space #136; Skirted
• Construction: Siding exterior; Roof present
• Exterior features: Front and rear fencing: chain link and block; Porch; Garage

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Swamp cooler; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Gas oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Lancaster Elementary (suburban): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,161 of 1,400 in CA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linda Verde Elementary (657 students, 88% FRL); Piute Middle (731 students, 96% FRL); Antelope Valley High (1,558 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1178 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.83%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $104,520
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45800 Challenger Way #208	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (-8%)	11mo	$45,000	$63	69
1301 E Avenue I #346	0.65mi	2/2.0	804 (+3%)	8mo	$80,000	$100	58
45800 Challenger Way #201	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-14%)	23mo	$89,900	$134	54
1301 E Avenue I #337	0.63mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	9mo	$100,000	$139	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $59,416
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $129,703
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1178
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $1,263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $779

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,325	-5% $1,294	+0% $1,263	+5% $1,232	+10% $1,202
Rent	-10% $1,075	-5% $1,169	+0% $1,263	+5% $1,357	+10% $1,451
Rate	-1.0pp $1,308	-0.5pp $1,286	base $1,263	+0.5pp $1,240	+1.0pp $1,217

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
550 E Avenue H14 Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,050	$2.41	0d	1	0.92mi
45118 Parkview Ln Lancaster, CA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,500	$2.55	26d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 177 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $89,000 Active 176 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,000 Active 175 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-02-05
   price $89,000
10. 2025-12-09
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥101°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,530
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $14,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,507
• After-tax cash flow: $11,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620880
• Math proficiency: 18% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,440
• Composite: 24.73/100
• National rank: #13028
• State rank: #1161 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $89,000 AVMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $95,000 AVMLS

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $166 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.