209 Yosemite Rd · San Rafael, CA 94903

$330,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1998 260 ac lot Est $320k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 209 Yosemite Road in San Rafael, a charming and light-filled home located in the desirable Contempo Marin Mobile Home Park. This refreshing three-bedroom, two-bath residence features new flooring, fresh interior paint, and stylish new light fixtures throughout. Step inside to discover a bright open-concept floor plan where the spacious living and dining areas flow seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting space for both everyday living and entertainment. Down the hall, you'll find three spacious bedrooms and two convenient bathrooms, including a relaxing primary suite complete with a large sunken tub the perfect retreat after a long day. Additional features include an am

Key facts

• Spa
• Sauna
• Tennis courts

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE SUNKEN TUB
• AMPLE-SIZED CARPORT
• SPA
• SAUNA
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease: $1,301
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double wide
• Construction: Insignia make (The Andrew Karsten Co INC)
• Exterior features: Located in Contempo Marin park; Land lease in place

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: One gas-starter fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $792 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $330k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 1.7% in San Rafael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#358 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• San Rafael City High (urban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #126 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 149 units permitted in Marin County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marin County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $330k implies a 154% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $330,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.83%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,016
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
243 Teton Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	6mo	$180,000	$134	86
337 Acadia Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-0%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	84
20 Yosemite Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	17mo	$280,000	$208	82
304 Zion Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+6%)	1mo	$275,000	$191	76
169 Yosemite Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-1%)	20mo	$280,000	$208	74
223 Olympic Way	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-9%)	10mo	$350,000	$283	73
275 Carlsbad Ct	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+6%)	4mo	$380,000	$264	69
45 Yosemite Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,236 (-9%)	10mo	$409,000	$331	65
373 Glacier Way	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-12%)	10mo	$335,000	$279	63
290 Yosemite Rd	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+6%)	15mo	$340,000	$236	58
210 Olympic Way	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+13%)	20mo	$267,000	$174	56
352 Acadia Ln	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+13%)	17mo	$375,000	$244	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-8,388
• Equity at exit: $49,204

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $36,279
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94903

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,991 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $792

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,988

Max offer price $330,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $979	-5% $885	+0% $792	+5% $699	+10% $605
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $634	+0% $792	+5% $950	+10% $1,107
Rate	-1.0pp $958	-0.5pp $876	base $792	+0.5pp $706	+1.0pp $620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,500
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Channing Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	722	$3,146	$4.35	0d	4	0.36mi
255 Channing Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,195	$3.19	2d	1	0.42mi
95 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	1138	$3,522	$3.09	0d	3	0.45mi
108 Professional Center Pkwy San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$3,195	$2.66	2d	1	0.47mi
2500 Deer Valley Rd San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	843	$3,457	$4.10	0d	6	0.53mi
1001 Cresta Way San Rafael, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$4,681	$4.57	2d	21	0.61mi
10 Professional Center Pkwy #26 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1107	$3,300	$2.98	25d	1	0.62mi
100 Marin Center Dr #64 San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	1112	$3,325	$2.99	6d	1	0.65mi
20 North Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$3,625	$4.55	0d	3	0.66mi
219 Mark Twain Ave San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1601	$5,850	$3.65	3d	1	0.68mi
267 Orris Ter San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1432	$5,000	$3.49	25d	1	0.83mi
53 Labrea Way San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1220	$5,800	$4.75	18d	1	0.88mi
175 Nova Albion Way San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	704	$3,550	$5.04	0d	7	1.23mi
41 Pine Tree Ct San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.5	1587	$5,500	$3.47	11d	1	1.23mi
124 Merrydale Rd San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,800	$2.95	13d	1	1.34mi
33 San Pablo Ave San Rafael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1581	$4,995	$3.16	2d	3	1.38mi
67 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	2.0	1.5	949	$3,300	$3.48	6d	1	1.39mi
158 Roundtree Blvd San Rafael, CA	3.0	2.0	1165	$3,900	$3.35	25d	1	1.40mi
868 Las Pavadas Ave San Rafael, CA	4.0	2.0	1595	$5,500	$3.45	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $330,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $330,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $330,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $330,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $330,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $330,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,508 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,714/yr (+$143/mo · 216.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,890
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$6,769
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,831
• − Management: −$3,831
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable income: $4,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $8,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Rafael City High
• NCES district ID: 0635110
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,104
• Composite: 45.58/100
• National rank: #2594
• State rank: #126 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Rafael

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #12194

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Rafael, CA
• County: Marin County · 243,328 people
• City population: 71,922
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,615
• Household income: $142,083
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1414.0

Population outlook (Marin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 276,379 people
• By 2030: 282,942 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 292,937 · +6.0%
• By 2050: 300,449 · +8.7%
• By 2075: 316,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 303,948 · +10.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+63.9) · D 80.6% · R 16.7% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 63.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+63.9 2020: D+66.5 2016: D+62.9 2012: D+50.5 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -893.58%
• Current HPI: 303.8086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+153.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $330,000 BAREIS
• 2002-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $794 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.