431 Saint Paul Rd · Tylertown, MS 39667

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1992 0.90 ac lot $120/sqft · at area comps Est $120k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable, move in ready, and designed to offer peace of mind, this newly renovated home in Tylertown is a great opportunity for buyers looking for updated living without the stress of major renovations at a great price point! Recent improvements including a new roof and new appliances add value while helping reduce major upfront expenses for the next owner. Inside, the home offers a clean, refreshed feel with a functional layout that makes everyday living comfortable and practical. Situated on a spacious lot in a peaceful setting, the property still offers the convenience of being just minutes from town, shopping, and schools. USDA financing eligibility may provide additional opportunities for qualified buyers looking for affordable homeownership. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Move-in-ready
• Spacious lot
• New appliances

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS LOT
• MOVE-IN-READY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $213 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.1% in Tylertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#46 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Walthall County School District (rural): math 22% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #86 of 130 in MS (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walthall County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,000
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -0.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Oak Grove Rd	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,134 (+13%)	3mo	$120,000	$106	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-5,868
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $12,289
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39667

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,233 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $984/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $963

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $119,900 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Affordable, move in ready, and designed to offer peace of mind, this newly renovated home in Tylertown is a great opportunity for buyers looking for updated living without the stress of major renovations at a great price point! Recent improvements including a new roof and new appliances add value while helping reduce major upfront expenses for the next owner. Inside, the home offers a clean, refreshed feel with a functional layout that makes everyday living comfortable and practical. Situated on a spacious lot in a peaceful setting, the property still offers the convenience of being just minutes from town, shopping, and schools. USDA financing eligibility may provide additional opportunities for qualified buyers looking for affordable homeownership. Schedule your showing today!

16. 2026-05-15
    price $119,900 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Affordable, move in ready, and designed to offer peace of mind, this newly renovated home in Tylertown is a great opportunity for buyers looking for updated living without the stress of major renovations at a great price point! Recent improvements including a new roof and new appliances add value while helping reduce major upfront expenses for the next owner. Inside, the home offers a clean, refreshed feel with a functional layout that makes everyday living comfortable and practical. Situated on a spacious lot in a peaceful setting, the property still offers the convenience of being just minutes from town, shopping, and schools. USDA financing eligibility may provide additional opportunities for qualified buyers looking for affordable homeownership. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2026-04-13
    listed $125,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Affordable, move in ready, and designed to offer peace of mind, this newly renovated home in Tylertown is a great opportunity for buyers looking for updated living without the stress of major renovations at a great price point! Recent improvements including a new roof and new appliances add value while helping reduce major upfront expenses for the next owner. Inside, the home offers a clean, refreshed feel with a functional layout that makes everyday living comfortable and practical. Situated on a spacious lot in a peaceful setting, the property still offers the convenience of being just minutes from town, shopping, and schools. USDA financing eligibility may provide additional opportunities for qualified buyers looking for affordable homeownership. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $125,000 Active 788-char remark

    Show marketing remark (788 chars)

    Affordable, move in ready, and designed to offer peace of mind, this newly renovated home in Tylertown is a great opportunity for buyers looking for updated living without the stress of major renovations at a great price point! Recent improvements including a new roof and new appliances add value while helping reduce major upfront expenses for the next owner. Inside, the home offers a clean, refreshed feel with a functional layout that makes everyday living comfortable and practical. Situated on a spacious lot in a peaceful setting, the property still offers the convenience of being just minutes from town, shopping, and schools. USDA financing eligibility may provide additional opportunities for qualified buyers looking for affordable homeownership. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2022-06-22
    soldstatus Closed
20. 2022-05-28
    status Pending
21. 2022-05-26
    price $34,276
22. 2022-05-24
    listed $36,080 Active
23. 2022-04-18
    historical
24. 2022-04-18
    status Pending
25. 2022-03-28
    listed $36,080 Active
26. 2022-03-15
    historical
27. 2022-02-25
    listed $37,979 Active
28. 2022-02-15
    historical
29. 2022-01-27
    price $39,978
30. 2022-01-10
    listed $42,083 Active
31. 2022-01-01
    historical
32. 2021-12-25
    price $44,559
33. 2021-11-03
    price $47,035
34. 2021-10-11
    listed $49,510 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,795
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$984
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$154
• After-tax cash flow: $2,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walthall County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804440
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,939
• Composite: 18.26/100
• National rank: #8959
• State rank: #86 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tylertown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #8187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,138

Population outlook (Walthall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,180 people
• By 2030: 12,361 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 10,728 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 9,233 · -29.9%
• By 2075: 6,445 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 4,955 · -62.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Walthall

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.9) · D 36.1% · R 63.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -26.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.9 2020: R+19.4 2016: R+15.2 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 147.5232
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+142.2% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $119,900 MLSU
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $119,900 HAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 HAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 MLSU
• 2022-06-22 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-05-28 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-05-26 Price Changed $34,276 MLSU
• 2022-05-24 Listed $36,080 MLSU
• 2022-04-18 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-04-18 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-03-28 Listed $36,080 MLSU
• 2022-03-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-02-25 Listed $37,979 MLSU
• 2022-02-15 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-01-27 Price Changed $39,978 MLSU
• 2022-01-10 Listed $42,083 MLSU
• 2022-01-01 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-12-25 Price Changed $44,559 MLSU
• 2021-11-03 Price Changed $47,035 MLSU
• 2021-10-11 Listed $49,510 MLSU

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $984 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.