15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #282 · Garnet, CA 92240

$74,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,250 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 1977 Good condition $60/sqft · at area comps Est $71k · 6% over $877/mo HOA · 34% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and enjoy resort living at it's finest at Hidden Springs Country Club, a 55+ active community located in Desert Hot Springs. This furnished 2 bed/2 bath turnkey oasis is ready for immediate move in. Enjoy your morning coffee and sunset cocktails on the covered deck with awe inspiring views of the golf course and Mount San Jacinto. The spacious living and dining area and well appointed kitchen make entertaining friends and family a breeze. There are two fully equipped bathrooms and bedrooms, and the primary bedroom includes a newer hybrid mattress. There is a walk in jetted tub with overhead shower in one of the baths. This well maintained home also features washer/dryer, covered parkin

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Pickle ball courts
• Tennis courts

Tags

• COVERED DECK
• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• STORAGE SHED
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS
• PICKLE BALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 6.0% in Garnet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#971 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, schools F, crime F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 89% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,604/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 2095% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo; HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 2→6/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,776 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.92%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,722
• List price: $74,900
• Delta: -1.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #243	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$69,500	$52	74
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #283	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	15mo	$75,000	$56	74
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #108	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	17mo	$95,000	$73	74
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #191	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	17mo	$126,000	$94	73
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #267	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	18mo	$80,000	$60	72
15500 Bubbling Wls #53	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	20mo	$109,000	$95	70
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #91	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$137,500	$102	69
15500 Bubbling Wells Rd #41	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	21mo	$35,000	$30	68
16160 Avenida Mirola	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	14mo	$318,000	$237	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.66% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $24,675
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.61×
• Total profit: $75,698
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92240

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,604 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$877
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $592	-5% $566	+0% $540	+5% $515	+10% $489
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $438	+0% $540	+5% $643	+10% $746
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $559	base $540	+0.5pp $521	+1.0pp $501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15490 Avenue Rambla Unit NA Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	25d	1	0.19mi
15490 Avenida Rambla Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1088	$2,600	$2.39	44d	1	0.19mi
16087 Bubbling Wells Rd Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1850	$5,000	$2.70	44d	1	0.27mi
15300 Palm Dr Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,800	$1.92	44d	1	0.99mi
13440 Quinta Way Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1032	$2,000	$1.94	44d	1	1.16mi
68160 Calle Blanco Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,500	$1.88	44d	1	1.26mi
13235 Mountain View Rd Unit 2 Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,400	$1.71	44d	1	1.28mi
13553 Avenida La Vis Desert Hot Springs, CA	3.0	2.0	1625	$2,495	$1.54	44d	1	1.28mi
12920 Inaja St Unit C Desert Hot Springs, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,895	$1.90	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $877 · $10,524/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,900 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    historical
16. 2026-03-31
    price $69,500
17. 2026-03-07
    price $74,500
18. 2026-01-04
    price $79,900
19. 2025-11-25
    price $84,900
20. 2025-11-19
    price $87,500
21. 2025-11-09
    listed $89,900 Active
22. 2025-11-09
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 2 d/yr ≥111°F today · 6 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,500
• − Management: −$2,500
• − HOA: −$10,524
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $6,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,533
• After-tax cash flow: $4,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This turnkey manufactured home is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a great opportunity for a potential buyer or investor looking for a move-in-ready property in a desirable community.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garnet

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #971
• US rank: #24574

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garnet, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,615
• Household income: $54,023
• Rent vs Own: 43.2% rent · 56.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2095.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 23% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 50% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.10%
• Current HPI: 418.4691
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.66%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $69,500 GPSMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $74,500 GPSMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $79,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $84,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $87,500 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $89,900 GPSMLS
• 2025-11-09 Coming Soon — GPSMLS