1245 Chappel Valley Rd · Sage, MI 48624

$249,328

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1996 1.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully updated property situated on a spacious corner lot with just over 1.1 acres of land to enjoy. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the care and attention that has gone into this home, featuring newer siding, a newer steel roof, updated carpeting, a warm knotty pine interior, an updated kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and freshly painted bathrooms. Relax on the covered porch or entertain family and friends on the low-maintenance Trex composite decking while taking in the peaceful surroundings. The attached 24' x 36' garage provides abundant space for vehicles, tools, and storage, while the newer oversized shed with a charming mini porch and

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Newer steel roof
• Spacious corner lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER STEEL ROOF
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (24 x 36); Approximately 2.5 garage parking spaces; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Electric water heater; Private drilled well; Septic system; Internet available via Spectrum
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide, built after 1976); One-story; Built in 1996; Facing west (side of street W)
• Construction: Vinyl siding with vinyl trim; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Shed; Corner lot, cleared and rural setting; Deep lot (150+ ft.) with rural view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Refrigerator; Vinyl flooring in kitchen; Kitchen approximately 12 x 10
• Bedrooms: Main-level primary bedroom (14 x 13) with carpet; Main-level second bedroom (13 x 10) with carpet; Main-level third bedroom (approx. 9' wide) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Vinyl flooring in kitchen, bathrooms, and laundry
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms, both on the main level; Main bath floors finished in vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Bay window; Cathedral/vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Window treatments; Water softener (owned); Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main-level laundry room (7 x 5) with vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-198/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gladwin Community Schools (town): math 28% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #232 of 540 in MI (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 287 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $249k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $216,023 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.28%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $150,255
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1224 Chappel Valley Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-4%)	21mo	$170,000	$123	73
1401 Chappel Dam Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+5%)	24mo	$144,900	$97	53
4251 Pebble Bch	0.68mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,578 (+10%)	8mo	$165,000	$105	37
4251 Pebble Bch Lot : 287 +	0.69mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,578 (+10%)	8mo	$165,000	$105	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,418
• Equity at exit: $37,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-37,284
• Equity at exit: $21,557

Cash invested: $69,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48624

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 287
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,308
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,740/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,181

Max offer price $246,945

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,332
• Closing costs: $7,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,328 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,328 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $249,328 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,966
• − Property taxes: −$3,740
• − Insurance: −$1,247
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$7,253
• Taxable loss: −$4,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gladwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615990
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,917
• Composite: 32.93/100
• National rank: #5595
• State rank: #232 of 540 in MI

Livability — Sage

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 16,269

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.67%
• Current HPI: 238.0744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+126.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $249,328 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-07 Listed $109,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $485 · -61.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.