18717 Mill Villa #615 · Jamestown, CA 95327

$135,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $95k · 43% over ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home! Mill Villa has a lot to offer for semi or retired living in the Sierra Foothills in Tuolumne County! This 2 bedroom 2 bathroom with possible 3rd bedroom (office) has been well loved. Exterior paint is only a few years old , handicap ramp was just added in past 8 months, brand new stove and microwave and tub in master bedroom. Laminate flooring through out the home. Nice size storage shed with work bench and shelving will stay with home. Sun shades on front porch and a light for porch sittin! Beautiful park with many common areas, pool and spa ! This park also has a club house billiard room and monthly activities! Your rent includes trash (at the dumpsters) pick up. Pet friendly park with doggie park for your convenience. Conveniently located just a few minutes from Sonora hospitals, doctors and shopping! Rent is 895.00 water is 27.40 flat rate, sewer is 38.80 a month and electricity fluctuates monthly and is owners responsibility. The park includes it with your rent space. New prospective owner will need to pass a credit check with the park asap. Agent is related to Seller. Buyer to investigate sq footage. As is . Park application and rules in associated docs .

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Breathtaking views
• Clubhouse

Tags

• COVERED PARKING AREA
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED DECK
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• BREATHTAKING VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Jamestown, CA 95327; directions: Turn onto Mill Villa Rd from Highway 49
• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount field present but property marked as No)
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric: Other; Utilities: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated / remodeled; Built in 2005
• Construction: Composition roof; Skirt: Other; Make: Karsten (mobile home)
• Exterior features: Patio awning; Carport awning; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Covered deck and porch with porch ramp; Porch; One gas-piped fireplace; Unfurnished; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.5% in Jamestown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#980 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: housing C-, cost of living D, schools F.
• Sonora Union High (town): math 21% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #243 of 517 in CA (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $99k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.60%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,640
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18717 Mill Villa #101 #101	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,040 (0%)	18mo	$144,000	$138	85
18717 Mill Villa Rd #421 #421	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #156	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,135 (+9%)	6mo	$72,000	$63	80
18717 Mill Villa Rd #250	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	944 (-9%)	3mo	$85,500	$91	77
18717 Mill Villa Rd #402 #402	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	12mo	$89,000	$93	72
18725 Hwy 108 #71 #71	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+11%)	22mo	$59,000	$51	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,361
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $39,611
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95327

• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $658/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,037

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $135,000 Active 64 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $658 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,026 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$368/yr (+$31/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$658
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,516
• − Management: −$1,516
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$743
• After-tax cash flow: $4,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonora Union High
• NCES district ID: 0637260
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,252
• Composite: 33.41/100
• National rank: #5470
• State rank: #243 of 517 in CA

Livability — Jamestown

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #980
• US rank: #24642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime B Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jamestown, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,799

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.96%
• Current HPI: 100.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2021-09-20 Sold (MLS) $99,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2021-04-15 Listed $100,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $658 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.