928 Marshall Rd · Valley Park, MO 63088

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 3,249 sqft lot Est $169k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great property with plenty of potential and ready for your personal touch! This home is perfect for those eager to apply some TLC and creative vision to make it truly shine. Ideal for a Family looking to craft their dream space to create many lasting memories! Don’t miss this chance to transform a gem into your masterpiece!

Key facts

• 3,249 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 3.9% in Valley Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#118 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Valley Park (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #130 of 324 in MO (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Valley Park Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 401 students, 31% FRL); Valley Park Sr. High (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 245 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 32% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.15%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $169,344
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
627 Benton St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-8%)	6mo	$150,000	$142	65
926 Marshall Rd	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,024 (-11%)	18mo	$110,000	$107	61
619 Benton St	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	5mo	$124,900	$118	57
714 Vest Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,305 (+13%)	0mo	$200,000	$153	56
412 Leonard Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,109 (-4%)	8mo	$249,000	$225	55
426 Marshall Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	9mo	$219,900	$181	54
623 Benton St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	13mo	$155,000	$147	54
406 Marshall Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,216 (+6%)	12mo	$45,000	$37	54
629 Leonard Ave	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+15%)	22mo	$250,000	$189	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $21,761
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $65,824
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63088

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $795

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
885 Forest Ave Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	44d	1	0.82mi
885 Forest Ave #302 Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.82mi
895 Forest Ave #203 Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	24d	1	0.83mi
895 Forest Ave Valley Park, MO	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,450	$1.34	15d	1	0.84mi
21 Fernridge Ave Valley Park, MO	3.0	2.0	988	$1,950	$1.97	19d	1	0.84mi
1040 Huntington Hill Dr Manchester, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,331	$1.65	3d	9	1.25mi
101 Forest Pkwy Valley Park, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	718	$1,460	$2.03	2d	6	1.33mi
2113 Pincian Dr Fenton, MO	2.0	1.0	768	$1,500	$1.95	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-10-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-07
   listed $90,000 Active
3. 2025-09-26
   listed $90,000 Active
4. 1984-05-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,457
• − Management: −$1,457
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $5,757
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $5,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Park
• NCES district ID: 2930690
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,665
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5045
• State rank: #130 of 324 in MO

Livability — Valley Park

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #7284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Park, MO
• City population: 8,423
• Population (ZIP): 8,423

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.80%
• Current HPI: 228.8786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Listed $90,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,428 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.