3014 Selma Ave · Lynn Haven, FL 32405

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1930 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

CURRENTLY UNDER CONTRACT, SELLER WILL CONSIDER BACKUP OFFERS Investor special with tremendous potential in a convenient Panama City location. Situated on a generous . 293 acre lot this 3 bedroom 1 bath home offers approximately 1760 square feet and is ready for renovation, restoration or redevelopment. Located near schools, shopping, dining and major thoroughfares the property presents an opportunity for investors, builders, or buyers seeking a project. Property is As Is due to property condition, including suspected mold, interior access may be limited. Buyer to verify all information including measurements, zoning, permitted uses, and all development requirements.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Generous lot
• Near dining

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING
• NEAR MAJOR THOROUGHFARES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer available
• Home design: Single-story home; Slab foundation
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 90 x 192

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms (three bedrooms): approx. 14 x 12, 12 x 11, and 12 x 11
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Interior features: Central living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $967 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 17.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lynn Haven — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in FL, #1,472 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.45%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $406,560
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3603 Azalea Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,729 (-2%)	13mo	$399,000	$231	66
3008 Bay Wing Loop	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+8%)	2mo	$477,000	$251	55
2503 W Orlando Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,578 (-10%)	17mo	$320,000	$203	52
3504 Rosewood Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,893 (+8%)	22mo	$360,000	$190	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $40,900
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $100,439
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,209/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $967

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3209 Pleasant Hill Rd Lynn Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	2376	$2,995	$1.26	21d	1	0.65mi
2433 Wakulla Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,600	$0.99	13d	1	0.78mi
2416 Camryns Xing Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,100	$1.12	21d	1	1.20mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	21d	1	1.29mi
108 Baldwin Rowe Cir Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $105,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 674-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $105,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 613-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,209 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,242
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,209
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $10,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,528
• After-tax cash flow: $9,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lynn Haven

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1472

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 21,459
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $105,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,209 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.