1807 Dewey Ln · Alamogordo, NM 88310

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 216 Days on market

Built 1960 8,059 sqft lot Est $170k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

Key facts

• Refreshed bathrooms
• Big fenced backyard
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• REFRESHED BATHROOMS
• BIG FENCED BACKYARD
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#5 in NM, #3,233 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, schools F.
• Alamogordo Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #26 of 95 in NM (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 450 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,430
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2364 Apache Ln	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,588 (+6%)	18mo	$180,701	$114	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,160
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,933
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88310

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 450
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $747/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,440

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $322	+0% $268	+5% $214	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $128	-5% $198	+0% $268	+5% $338	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $364	-0.5pp $316	base $268	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2201 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1408	$3,000	$2.13	26d	1	0.35mi
2360 Mesa Ln Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1173	$1,600	$1.36	26d	1	0.44mi
1514 Utah Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	17d	1	0.56mi
1502 Campbell Pl Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1816	$1,450	$0.80	26d	1	0.63mi
1301 Jefferson Ave Unit LAST ONE AVAILABLE!! Alamogordo, NM	2.0	2.0	892	$1,425	$1.60	6d	1	0.70mi
2606 Pontiac Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,650	$0.92	26d	1	0.70mi
2300 Aspen Dr Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,400	$1.02	6d	1	0.74mi
1301 Fillmore Ave Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	967	$1,095	$1.13	47d	2	0.80mi
2116 N Scenic Dr Apt A1 Alamogordo, NM	2.0	1.0	957	$950	$0.99	26d	1	0.86mi
2637 Las Alturas Ct Alamogordo, NM	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,600	$1.17	46d	1	1.23mi
1309 Jackson Ave Alamogordo, NM	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,500	$1.02	46d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   price $189,900
3. 2026-01-12
   status Active
4. 2026-01-06
   status Pending
5. 2025-09-23
   status Active
6. 2025-09-01
   status Pending
7. 2025-08-24
   listed $199,900 Active
8. 2023-11-21
   soldstatus Closed 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

9. 2023-11-20
   soldstatus
10. 2023-11-02
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

11. 2023-10-31
    price $100,000 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

12. 2023-10-25
    status Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

13. 2023-10-18
    status Pending 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

14. 2023-09-13
    listed $110,000 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Home needs a new roof and a few minor repairs. The floor plan is very functional It is located only minutes from the small Walmart, hospital, NMSU-A and the International Space Hall of Fame. Schedule your appointment today to view this home and explore the possibilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $747 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$772/yr (+$64/mo · 103.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥98°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$747
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,708
• − Management: −$1,708
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $73
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $3,200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamogordo Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500030
• Math proficiency: 26% —
• Reading proficiency: 39% —
• Median HH income: $42,194
• Composite: 30.24/100
• National rank: #11572
• State rank: #26 of 95 in NM

Livability — Alamogordo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #3233

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamogordo, NM
• County: Otero County · 36,983 people
• City population: 36,983
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• Population (ZIP): 36,983
• Household income: $57,214
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1231.0

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.88%
• Current HPI: 181.737
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Alamogordo, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+72.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — OCAOR
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $189,900 OCAOR
• 2026-01-12 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2026-01-06 Pending — OCAOR
• 2025-09-23 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2025-09-01 Pending — OCAOR
• 2025-08-24 Listed $199,900 OCAOR
• 2023-11-21 Sold (MLS) — OCAOR
• 2023-11-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-11-02 Pending — OCAOR
• 2023-10-31 Price Changed $100,000 OCAOR
• 2023-10-25 Relisted — OCAOR
• 2023-10-18 Pending — OCAOR
• 2023-09-13 Listed $110,000 OCAOR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $747 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.