531 S Park Ave · Buffalo, NY 14204

$139,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,982 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1910 6,314 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

531 South Park Avenue, Buffalo, NY 14204 Competitively priced value add This is a classic two-family duplex (upper/lower) built in 1910 in Buffalo's First Ward neighborhood along South Park Avenue. The property offers a hefty 2,982 sq ft of living space on a 6,300 sq ft lot (0.14 acres), with separate utilities (boilers) typical for these older multi-family homes. Key highlights for investors:Upper unit is currently tenanted for $1200 per month— providing immediate rental income and cash flow from day one. Lower unit requires rehab — offering strong value-add potential through cosmetic and mechanical updates to bring it to market rents. Solid bones in a location near Sou

Key facts

• Separate utilities
• Solid bones
• Value-add potential

Tags

• TWO-FAMILY DUPLEX
• SEPARATE UTILITIES
• VALUE-ADD POTENTIAL
• SOLID BONES
• ACCESS TO PUBLIC TRANSIT
• LOW PROPERTY TAXES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property configured as 2 units total; Each unit has separate gas and electric meters
• Financial info: Water/Sewer operating expense included (multi-unit); Owner pays water; rent includes water (for rental units)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Multiple parking spaces (two or more)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 35 x 180

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate; Varies by room
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heating details listed in remarks
• Interior features: Full basement; Laminate and varied flooring
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($33k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $137k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 33 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,688/mo this rent would consume 200% of the median local household income ($28k/yr) (locally 945% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($137k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $139k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,915 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 84.57%
• DSCR: 4.76
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.22×
• Total profit: $164,232
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.4%
• Equity multiple: 11.79×
• Total profit: $420,005
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14204

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,688 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$984
• Net cashflow: $2,743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 36%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1	$4,688
Total (2 units)			$4,688

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
237 Main St Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1608	$4,035	$2.51	1d	9	1.05mi
491 Emslie St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2488	$1,200	$0.48	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $159,000 Active
16. 2025-10-02
    historical $1,200
17. 2025-08-30
    listed $1,200
18. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus $76,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,500
• − Management: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $32,645
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7,835
• After-tax cash flow: $25,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 7,932
• Household income: $28,182
• Rent vs Own: 73.5% rent · 26.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 945.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.36%
• Current HPI: 312.6232
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.48%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+109.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-02 Rental Removed $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-08-30 Listed for Rent $1,200 PROPERTYWARE
• 2021-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $179 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.