4521 Provincetown Dr · Country Club Hills, IL 60478

$157,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,207 sqft · Townhouse public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1980 1,525 sqft lot Est $158k · at est. $180/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Completely remodeled and impeccably maintained, this beautiful three-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath townhouse. The inviting sun-filled living room showcases elegant crown molding and stylish luxury vinyl plank flooring, creating a warm yet sophisticated ambiance. The stunning updated kitchen features crisp white cabinetry, modern finishes, and a bright dining area with a door leading to the paver patio overlooking the fenced yard-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A beautifully remodeled powder room with crown molding completes the main level. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite offers a walk-in closet and a private bath, while two additional generously sized bedrooms and another full bath provide

Key facts

• $180 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building contains 4 units; Ownership: Fee simple with homeowners association
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $180; Association covers insurance, lawn care and snow removal; Association amenities include a party room; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener (1 garage space; 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Water: Lake Michigan / Public; Sewer: Public sewer; Electric: Circuit breakers
• Home design: Attached single property; Townhouse — 2 story; Entry level: 1; Rehab completed in 2022
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Estimated age: 41–50 years
• Exterior features: Patio; Fenced yard; School bus service access; Interstate access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eating area with breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (master bedroom on second level; two additional bedrooms on second level)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl in living, dining and kitchen areas; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $157k).
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#212 in IL, #3,963 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Rich Twp Hsd 227 (suburban): math 5% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #577 of 620 in IL (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $157k implies a 3825% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.

Recommended offer $147,580 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.26%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,117
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1101 Williamsburg Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-1%)	0mo	$185,000	$154	82
4542 Windsor Ln	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,306 (+8%)	0mo	$175,000	$134	78
1135 Williamsburg Rd	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+3%)	4mo	$130,000	$104	77
2321 Windsor Ln	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,160 (-4%)	10mo	$165,000	$142	75
2265 Windsor Ln	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	11mo	$134,900	$112	74
2323 Windsor Ln	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,375 (+14%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	70
4474 Provincetown Dr	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,304 (+8%)	12mo	$160,000	$123	70
165 Williamsburg Rd	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,304 (+8%)	14mo	$145,000	$111	65
4543 Windsor Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,375 (+14%)	12mo	$180,000	$131	63
19211 Elm Dr #145	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	2mo	$100,000	$83	58
142 Williamsburg Rd	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+9%)	15mo	$175,000	$133	57
3505 Lakeview Dr #204	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+12%)	6mo	$195,000	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,812
• Equity at exit: $23,409

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $6,106
• Equity at exit: $13,574

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60478

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,288 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,557/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $157,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4453 Provincetown Dr Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	2.5	1300	$2,500	$1.92	1d	1	0.08mi
1153 Williamsburg Rd Country Club Hills, IL	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,900	$1.56	1d	1	0.14mi
2256 Windsor Ln Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	1.0	1212	$2,250	$1.86	1d	1	0.17mi
18019 Ravisloe Ter Country Club Hills, IL	3.0	1.5	1150	$2,800	$2.43	1d	1	0.69mi
17984 Amherst Ct Country Club Hills, IL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	1d	1	0.77mi
3515 Bordeaux Ct Hazel Crest, IL	4.0	2.0	1486	$2,900	$1.95	1d	1	0.95mi
3501 177th St Country Club Hills, IL	2.0	2.0	839	$2,850	$3.40	1d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $157,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $157,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $157,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $157,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $157,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $157,000 Active
15. 2026-04-08
    historical
16. 2026-02-24
    listed Active
17. 2021-10-09
    soldstatus $4,000 Closed
18. 2021-09-24
    status Pending
19. 2021-09-23
    listed $5,000 Active
20. 2018-12-26
    soldstatus $45,500
21. 2018-11-30
    soldstatus $45,500 Closed Sale
22. 2018-08-09
    historical Contingent
23. 2018-07-31
    listed $50,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,557 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,557 · $546/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$6,557
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable income: $203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $2,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rich Twp Hsd 227
• NCES district ID: 1733420
• Math proficiency: 5% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $56,056
• Composite: 8.93/100
• National rank: #9885
• State rank: #577 of 620 in IL

Livability — Country Club Hills

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Country Club Hills, IL
• City population: 16,549
• Population (ZIP): 16,549

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 87% White 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.73%
• Current HPI: 212.3917
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+214.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Listed $157,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-09 Sold (MLS) $4,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-23 Listed $5,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records
• 2018-11-30 Sold (MLS) $45,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-09 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-31 Listed $50,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,557 · +397.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.