11100 W Alsdorf Rd #10 · Arizona City, AZ 85123

$19,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Built 1972 4,500 sqft lot Est $26k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable living at Roadrunner Estates in Arizona City! Low lot rent and great amenities! Community pool, laundry area, picnic hang out and dog park to name a few! This home boasts an open concept and Arizona Room. Park fee includes water, trash and sewer.

Key facts

• 4,500 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot features: 4,500 (assessor); Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly $550); Association fees include sewer, water, trash, and grounds maintenance; Community pool; Community laundry

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 open parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Window/wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $853 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.8% vs local median 4.2% in Arizona City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#246 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime D-.
• Casa Grande Union High School District (4453) (suburban): math 14% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #193 of 249 in AZ (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 308 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $597 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $17,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 183.79%
• DSCR: 9.18
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $25,920
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11100 W Alsdorf Rd #40	0.02mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	6mo	$19,000	$26	92
11100 W Alsdorf Rd #13	0.00mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	17mo	$11,000	$15	84
11100 W Alsdorf Rd #2	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	18mo	$27,500	$41	74
11100 W Alsdorf Rd #14	0.00mi	2/1.0	784 (+9%)	15mo	$28,000	$36	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.18×
• Total profit: $51,149
• Equity at exit: $2,967

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.57×
• Total profit: $114,606
• Equity at exit: $1,721

Cash invested: $5,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85123

• Home prices YoY: -3.2%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$104
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$25 /mo · $298/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $853

Break-even live

Break-even rent $174

Max offer price $19,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $867	-5% $860	+0% $853	+5% $847	+10% $840
Rent	-10% $754	-5% $804	+0% $853	+5% $903	+10% $953
Rate	-1.0pp $863	-0.5pp $858	base $853	+0.5pp $848	+1.0pp $843

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,975
• Closing costs: $597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14010 S Amado Blvd Unit 212 (216) Arizona City, AZ	1.0	1.0	560	$1,225	$2.19	1d	1	0.40mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $19,900 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $19,900 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $19,900 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $19,900 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $19,900 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $19,900 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $19,900 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $19,900 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $19,900 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $19,900 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $19,900 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $19,900 Active 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $19,900 Active 192 DOM
15. 2025-11-20
    listed $19,900 Active
16. 2024-07-01
    soldstatus $18,000 Closed 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Affordable living at Roadrunner Estates in Arizona City! Low lot rent and great amenities! Community pool, laundry area, picnic hang out and dog park to name a few! This home boasts an open concept and Arizona Room. Park fee includes water, trash and sewer.

17. 2024-06-11
    status Pending 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Affordable living at Roadrunner Estates in Arizona City! Low lot rent and great amenities! Community pool, laundry area, picnic hang out and dog park to name a few! This home boasts an open concept and Arizona Room. Park fee includes water, trash and sewer.

18. 2024-03-25
    listed $18,500 Active 258-char remark

    Show marketing remark (258 chars)

    Affordable living at Roadrunner Estates in Arizona City! Low lot rent and great amenities! Community pool, laundry area, picnic hang out and dog park to name a few! This home boasts an open concept and Arizona Room. Park fee includes water, trash and sewer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,115
• − Property taxes: −$298
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,204
• − Management: −$1,204
• − Depreciation: −$579
• Taxable income: $10,552
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,533
• After-tax cash flow: $7,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Casa Grande Union High School District (4453)
• NCES district ID: 0401740
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,373
• Composite: 15.38/100
• National rank: #9319
• State rank: #193 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Arizona City

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #22768

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arizona City, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 10,003
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,003
• Household income: $69,137
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 11% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.30%
• Current HPI: 283.5405
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+7.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $19,900 ARMLS
• 2024-07-01 Sold (MLS) $18,000 ARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Pending — ARMLS
• 2024-03-25 Listed $18,500 ARMLS