6118 433rd St · Primghar, IA 51245

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 309 Days on market

Built 1950 0.48 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great home located in Gaza, Iowa, featuring 1 BEDROOM on the main floor PLUS 2 NONCONFORMING BEDROOMS and 2 baths. This residence includes an attached 1-stall garage and large lot. This home is priced to sell and could be a good investment property or a great home for about anyone. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home your own. UTILITIES INFO - AVERAGE MONTHLY TOTAL: $166.00 - Gas/Electric: MidAmerican Energy; Water: Osceola Rural Water

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $288 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#193 in IA, #3,535 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• South O'Brien Community School District (rural): math 64% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #196 of 289 in IA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South O'Brien Elem Sch Primghar Center (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #273 of 616 statewide, top 51%, 324 students, 38% FRL); South O'Brien Secondary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B-, #235 of 336 statewide, top 71%, 252 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in O'Brien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• O'Brien County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.45%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $47,837
• Equity at exit: $63,285

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.55×
• Total profit: $126,027
• Equity at exit: $115,682

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 51245

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $274/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $738

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $316	+0% $288	+5% $259	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $200	-5% $244	+0% $288	+5% $331	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $337	-0.5pp $313	base $288	+0.5pp $262	+1.0pp $236

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,000 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,000 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,000 Active 306 DOM
5. 2025-07-28
   listed $99,000 Active 449-char remark

   Show marketing remark (449 chars)

   Great home located in Gaza, Iowa, featuring 1 BEDROOM on the main floor PLUS 2 NONCONFORMING BEDROOMS and 2 baths. This residence includes an attached 1-stall garage and large lot. This home is priced to sell and could be a good investment property or a great home for about anyone. Don't miss the opportunity to make this home your own. UTILITIES INFO - AVERAGE MONTHLY TOTAL: $166.00 - Gas/Electric: MidAmerican Energy; Water: Osceola Rural Water

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $274 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$640/yr (+$53/mo · 233.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,227
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$274
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$460
• After-tax cash flow: $2,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South O'Brien Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1900026
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,412
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1267
• State rank: #196 of 289 in IA

Livability — Primghar

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #3535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,264

Population outlook (O'Brien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,353 people
• By 2030: 13,040 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 12,422 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 11,887 · -11.0%
• By 2075: 11,132 · -16.6%
• By 2100: 10,176 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Black 3% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Portuguese 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · O'Brien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.0% · R 80.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+56.8 2016: R+60.2 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.17%
• Current HPI: 148.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-07-28 Listed $99,000 NWIA

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $274 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.