273 Back West Creek Rd · Newark Valley, NY 13811

$39,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 2007 1.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

273 Back West Creek Rd. — Deeded double-wide set on 1.45 acres in a quiet country setting. The open living and kitchen layout creates a spacious feel beyond its footprint. This three-bedroom, one-bath home also offers additional flexible space with potential to expand the bathroom, bedroom, or create a home office. A great opportunity for buyers seeking privacy, space, and future possibilities. Centrally located: 15 miles to Owego, 20 miles to Ithaca, 25 to Binghamton. Seller/Owner financing is not available.

Key facts

• Deeded double-wide
• Flexible space
• Potential to expand

Tags

• DEEDED DOUBLE-WIDE
• QUIET COUNTRY SETTING
• OPEN LIVING AND KITCHEN LAYOUT
• FLEXIBLE SPACE
• POTENTIAL TO EXPAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $696 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#462 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• Newark Valley Central School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #466 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 139 units permitted in Tioga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Tioga County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $40k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.76%
• DSCR: 4.33
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.28×
• Total profit: $58,985
• Equity at exit: $28,400

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.3%
• Equity multiple: 13.38×
• Total profit: $138,260
• Equity at exit: $54,640

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13811

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $696

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 135 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 134 DOM
17. 2026-04-26
    price $39,900 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    273 Back West Creek Rd. — Deeded double-wide set on 1.45 acres in a quiet country setting. The open living and kitchen layout creates a spacious feel beyond its footprint. This three-bedroom, one-bath home also offers additional flexible space with potential to expand the bathroom, bedroom, or create a home office. A great opportunity for buyers seeking privacy, space, and future possibilities. Centrally located: 15 miles to Owego, 20 miles to Ithaca, 25 to Binghamton. Seller/Owner financing is not available.

18. 2026-01-16
    listed $45,900 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    273 Back West Creek Rd. — Deeded double-wide set on 1.45 acres in a quiet country setting. The open living and kitchen layout creates a spacious feel beyond its footprint. This three-bedroom, one-bath home also offers additional flexible space with potential to expand the bathroom, bedroom, or create a home office. A great opportunity for buyers seeking privacy, space, and future possibilities. Centrally located: 15 miles to Owego, 20 miles to Ithaca, 25 to Binghamton. Seller/Owner financing is not available.

19. 2007-06-19
    soldstatus $18,000
20. 1993-01-27
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,181
• − Management: −$1,181
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $8,205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,969
• After-tax cash flow: $6,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620670
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $53,770
• Composite: 38.12/100
• National rank: #4273
• State rank: #466 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newark Valley

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #462
• US rank: #8031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,102

Population outlook (Tioga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,155 people
• By 2030: 42,801 · -5.2%
• By 2040: 37,960 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 33,071 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 24,144 · -46.5%
• By 2100: 16,545 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tioga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.9) · D 38.6% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.2pp · 2024: -22.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.9 2020: R+20.6 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+15.1 2008: R+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.29%
• Current HPI: 256.8812
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+166.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $39,900 GBAOR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $45,900 GBAOR
• 2007-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records
• 1993-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,487 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.