191 Panorama Dr · Fancy Gap, VA 24328

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1975 1.50 ac lot Est $225k · at est. $115/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Piedmont View home in Chalet High Development right off the Blue Ridge Parkway. Home features: Log siding, 3 bedroom, 1 bath, 816 sq. ft. , recently remodeled with new cabinets, windows, flooring, counter tops, appliances and heat pump. Wood burning fireplace. Enjoy the open porch with the view or the covered porch in front. Paved circle drive with easy access into home. Located near the community pool, tennis/basketball courts, clubhouse, playground, fishing pond and trash area.

Key facts

• Remodeled in 2019
• New counter tops
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• REMODELED IN 2019
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW COUNTER TOPS
• NEW FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in Fancy Gap — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#515 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carroll County Public School District (rural): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #46 of 131 in VA (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fancy Gap Elementary (math 92% / reading 87%, grade A+, #19 of 1,108 statewide, top 2%, 127 students, 85% FRL); Carroll County Middle (math 54% / reading 72%, grade B+, #134 of 342 statewide, top 40%, 756 students, 84% FRL); Carroll County High (math 64% / reading 67%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,069 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 48% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 80 units permitted in Carroll County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Carroll County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $225k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $162,689 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $225,216
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
191 Panorama Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	816 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$276	99
416 Panorama Dr	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (+6%)	9mo	$259,500	$300	69
354 Mountaineer Way	0.28mi	3/1.0	895 (+10%)	12mo	$130,000	$145	61
295 Mountaineer Way	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	900 (+10%)	20mo	$180,000	$200	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $14,649
• Equity at exit: $99,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $69,261
• Equity at exit: $151,496

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24328

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,627 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,838

Max offer price $195,548

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-103	+0% $-167	+5% $-230	+10% $-294
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-231	+0% $-167	+5% $-102	+10% $-38
Rate	-1.0pp $-53	-0.5pp $-109	base $-167	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-284

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: trashpool

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2019-08-13
   soldstatus $150,000 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Piedmont View home in Chalet High Development right off the Blue Ridge Parkway. Home features: Log siding, 3 bedroom, 1 bath, 816 sq. ft. , recently remodeled with new cabinets, windows, flooring, counter tops, appliances and heat pump. Wood burning fireplace. Enjoy the open porch with the view or the covered porch in front. Paved circle drive with easy access into home. Located near the community pool, tennis/basketball courts, clubhouse, playground, fishing pond and trash area.

4. 2019-07-01
   listed $159,900 484-char remark

   Show marketing remark (484 chars)

   Piedmont View home in Chalet High Development right off the Blue Ridge Parkway. Home features: Log siding, 3 bedroom, 1 bath, 816 sq. ft. , recently remodeled with new cabinets, windows, flooring, counter tops, appliances and heat pump. Wood burning fireplace. Enjoy the open porch with the view or the covered porch in front. Paved circle drive with easy access into home. Located near the community pool, tennis/basketball courts, clubhouse, playground, fishing pond and trash area.

5. 2019-01-28
   listed $180,000
6. 2018-10-09
   soldstatus $99,000
7. 2018-10-04
   soldstatus $99,000
8. 2018-07-06
   listed $105,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,086/yr (+$90/mo · 142.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,562
• − Management: −$1,562
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$6,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,443
• After-tax cash flow: $-557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carroll County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100690
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,359
• Composite: 53.88/100
• National rank: #1406
• State rank: #46 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fancy Gap

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #515
• US rank: #23081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Carroll County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,768 people
• By 2030: 27,909 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 25,788 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 23,522 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 19,045 · -33.8%
• By 2100: 14,801 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Serbian 4% Slovak 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Carroll

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 18.1% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.9pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+59.6 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Current HPI: 168.5656
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — SWVAR
• 2026-03-27 Listed $225,000 SWVAR
• 2019-08-13 Sold (MLS) $150,000 SWVAR
• 2019-07-01 Listed $159,900 SWVAR
• 2019-01-28 Listed $180,000 SWVAR
• 2018-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $99,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-04 Sold (MLS) $99,000 SWVAR
• 2018-07-06 Listed $105,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.