1241 W McNeil · Show Low, AZ 85901

$30,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1987 Poor condition $69/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 58% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1987
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $810 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.7% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Show Low Unified District (4393) (rural): math 32% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 249 in AZ (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 891 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.73%
• DSCR: 6.15
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $81,283
• List price: $30,000
• Delta: -68.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $46,755
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.77×
• Total profit: $107,232
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85901

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $810

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $30,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $30,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $30,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $30,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $30,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $30,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $30,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $30,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $30,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $30,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $30,000 Active
18. 2026-03-18
    price $25,999
19. 2026-03-03
    price $30,999
20. 2026-01-20
    price $35,999
21. 2025-08-11
    price $39,500
22. 2025-07-18
    price $43,400
23. 2023-03-06
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $9,829
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,359
• After-tax cash flow: $7,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive renovation and updates to bring it up to code and modern standards, significantly improving its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen — No photos of the kitchen
• Major bathroom — No photos of the bathroom
• Major roof — No photos of the roof
• Major exterior — No photos of the exterior
• Major flooring — No photos of the flooring
• Major interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint
• Major windows — No photos of the windows
• Major foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive renovation and updates to bring the home up to code and modern standards — This would significantly improve the home's marketability and safety
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems upgrade — Modern, efficient systems improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both exterior and interior painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing and modern

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen · No photos of the kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom · No photos of the bathroom	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No photos of the roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior · No photos of the exterior	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of the flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No photos of the windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive renovation and updates to bring the home up to code and modern standards — This would significantly improve the home's marketability and safety ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced curb appeal can attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems upgrade — Modern, efficient systems improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both exterior and interior painting — Fresh paint can make the home look more appealing and modern ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Show Low Unified District (4393)
• NCES district ID: 0407700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,240
• Composite: 29.9/100
• National rank: #6387
• State rank: #89 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Show Low

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Show Low, AZ
• City population: 18,821
• Population (ZIP): 18,821

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
• Current HPI: 386.3007
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-58.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $30,000 WMMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $25,999 WMMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $30,999 WMMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $35,999 WMMLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $39,500 WMMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $43,400 WMMLS
• 2023-03-06 Sold (MLS) $72,000 WMMLS