48 Johns Jog · Coxsackie, NY 12051

$289,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 178 Days on market

Built 1991 1.30 ac lot Est $253k · 14% over $192/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your serene retreat in the Northern Hudson Valley! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom ranch is situated on a spacious 1.3-acre triple size lot, offering plenty of room for outdoor activities. The home does need some TLC but has a newer roof and a beautifully renovated bathroom, along with wide board pine flooring throughout. Relax in the hot tub Jacuzzi or entertain guests on the inviting blue stone patio and front porch. Enjoy the community's exceptional HOA amenities, including swimming pools, tennis courts, 24-hour security, and lake access. Conveniently located near the NYS Thruway and Hudson Amtrak, you'll also find restaurants, breweries, golf courses, ski resorts, and hik

Key facts

• Blue stone patio
• Renovated bathroom
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• WIDE BOARD PINE FLOORING
• HOT TUB JACUZZI
• BLUE STONE PATIO
• FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Turn right onto Johns Jog from Randy Road; home located on right
• Financial info: Annual tax amount $3,710
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $2,300 (approx. $191.67/month)

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1,120 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: 1.3-acre lot; Zoned 06 - HIGH DEN 2

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One full bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($747/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $285k (1.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Coxsackie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#310 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $254,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $253,120
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Kings Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-10%)	10mo	$192,500	$191	71
50 Kings Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,034 (-8%)	1mo	$240,000	$232	67
12 Luke St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (+14%)	8mo	$288,000	$226	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $161,525
• Equity at exit: $260,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $472,865
• Equity at exit: $561,463

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12051

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,335/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$598
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
37 Van Dyck St Coxsackie, NY	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,850	$2.07	14d	1	1.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-29
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-11-17
   listed $289,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$4,335
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,736
• − Management: −$2,736
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$3,952
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$948
• After-tax cash flow: $1,696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — Coxsackie

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #5149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coxsackie, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,706

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.86%
• Current HPI: 371.238
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-12-29 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $289,000 HVCRMLS