16 Mill St · East Prospect, PA 17406

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 197 Days on market

Built 2023 ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2 bedroom 2 bath home in quiet, well maintained community. Primary bedroom has 2 closets and attached bath with walk in shower. Home features a large kitchen with abundant cabinet space, farmhouse sink and gas range are a chef's delight. Relax and watch wildlife from the front porch deck, the canopied patio beside the shed, or take a short walk to the creek. Spacious lot with large trees, flowering bushes, and a vegetable garden that backs up to an open field. Awnings over front door and windows, gutters, and wider doorways add to the long list of upgrades in this move in ready home. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Farmhouse sink
• Wider doorways

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• WALK IN SHOWER
• NEW SHED
• WIDER DOORWAYS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#451 in PA, #4,130 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Eastern York SD (rural): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #146 of 539 in PA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.93%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $17,237
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $54,070
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17406

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,356/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $800

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $518	-5% $495	+0% $473	+5% $450	+10% $428
Rent	-10% $362	-5% $418	+0% $473	+5% $528	+10% $583
Rate	-1.0pp $513	-0.5pp $493	base $473	+0.5pp $452	+1.0pp $431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 W Maple St Unit 1 Wrightsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1486	$1,200	$0.81	44d	1	1.07mi
21 W Maple St Unit 2 Wrightsville, PA	2.0	1.0	1486	$1,200	$0.81	14d	1	1.07mi
12 Creekside Dr Wrightsville, PA	3.0	2.5	1250	$1,750	$1.40	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $79,900
3. 2026-02-19
   price $82,000
4. 2026-02-03
   status Active
5. 2026-01-26
   status Pending
6. 2026-01-16
   status Active
7. 2026-01-15
   status Pending
8. 2026-01-10
   price $80,000
9. 2026-01-10
   status Active
10. 2025-11-13
    historical
11. 2025-08-11
    price $89,900
12. 2025-08-04
    listed $91,499 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,356 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,356
• − Insurance: −$1,197
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $4,741
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $4,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastern York SD
• NCES district ID: 4208790
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,178
• Composite: 44.94/100
• National rank: #2712
• State rank: #146 of 539 in PA

Livability — East Prospect

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #4130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 443
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,636
• Household income: $83,521
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.81%
• Current HPI: 245.4821
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $82,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-03 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $91,499 BRIGHT MLS