837 Southwood Dr · Cottonwood Shores, TX 78657

$225,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2019 10,001 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cottonwood Shores—where lake living meets exceptional value. This beautifully maintained 2019 Redman/Champion home offers over 2,300 square feet of living space with 4 oversized bedrooms, 2 full baths, two spacious living areas, a dedicated dining room, and an open-concept kitchen designed for everyday living and entertaining. Situated on an oversized corner lot, this move-in ready home features luxury vinyl flooring, abundant cabinetry and countertop space, large walk-in closets, and a private owner's retreat with garden tub. Step outside and enjoy your own backyard oasis complete with a covered patio, above-ground swimming pool, mature shade trees, fenced yard, and worksh

Key facts

• Oversized corner lot
• Backyard oasis
• Covered patio

Tags

• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• PRIVATE OWNER'S RETREAT
• BACKYARD OASIS
• COVERED PATIO
• ABOVE-GROUND SWIMMING POOL
• MATURE SHADE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features: dog park, fishing, pet amenities, playground, park

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street outside parking; Parking for 6 vehicles; See remarks regarding parking
• Security: Security system; Closed-circuit cameras
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Permanent pillar/post/pier foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Built by Redman/Champion Homes; Cement and vinyl siding; Asbestos shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard with fire pit; Rear covered porch and deck; Porch; Exterior steps; Outbuilding(s) including shed(s) and workshop; Privacy wood fencing; Corner lot with many large trees; Level backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range (free-standing); Range hood; Microwave; Disposal; Free-standing refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring; Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath; Soaking tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan with multiple living areas; Main level primary suite; Kitchen island and breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen with pantry; Built-in features; Recessed lighting; Ceiling fan(s); Double vanity; Soaking tub; Walk-in closet(s); Laminate counters; Smart home; Window coverings; Double pane vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Cottonwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#385 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1223 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.18%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $31,083
• Equity at exit: $76,172

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $104,264
• Equity at exit: $100,733

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1223
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,654 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$394 /mo · $4,723/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,110

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
342 Columbine St Meadowlakes, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,195	$1.23	4d	1	1.05mi
435 Saint Andrews St Meadowlakes, TX	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,500	$1.21	44d	1	1.35mi
148 Nelson Pl Meadowlakes, TX	4.0	3.0	2215	$3,100	$1.40	15d	1	1.40mi
125 Dove Ln Meadowlakes, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	4d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,723 · $394/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,723 · $394/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,852
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$4,723
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,548
• − Management: −$2,548
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,759
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$422
• After-tax cash flow: $4,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cottonwood Shores

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #8036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood Shores, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $225,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-07-09 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-24 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+44.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,723 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.