3777 Willow Pass Rd #85 · Bay Point, CA 94565

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · Manufactured · 136 Days on market

Est $219k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3777 Willow Pass Rd #85 is a state of the art 2025 Manufactured Home that has been beautifully constructed with the finest finishes, Appliances, and Amenities. If you've ever considered making the transition from a single-family home or Condo to upscale Manufactured Home living, this home will make that decision a"no brainer". This is a wide-open floor plan with vaulted ceilings, taped & textured drywall, baseboards & moldings. Everything here is brand new including the Quartz Counter tops in the Island Kitchen, Breakfast Bar & Bathrooms, the wide-planked water-proof Laminate flooring, the Stainless Steel Appliance Package & the HVAC. The Kitchen / Family R

Key facts

• Island kitchen
• Wide open floor plan
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• WIDE OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• QUARTZ COUNTER TOPS
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WATER-PROOF LAMINATE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.7% in Bay Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#736 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mt. Diablo Unified (suburban): math 36% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #202 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,620
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3777 Willow Pass Rd #71	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+1%)	1mo	$270,000	$207	95
3777 Willow Pass Rd #82	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-7%)	13mo	$265,000	$221	72
3777 Willow Pass Rd #21	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-3%)	22mo	$212,000	$170	70
3777 Willow Pass #58	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+11%)	14mo	$237,500	$166	69
55 Pacifica Ave Unit SP 84	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+12%)	13mo	$107,000	$74	41
55 Pacifica Ave #130	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+14%)	23mo	$219,000	$150	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,775
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-14,530
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,865 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1123 Shoreview Ct Bay Point, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	824	$2,704	$3.28	2d	9	0.42mi
2000 Villa Dr Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,890	$3.13	1d	13	0.45mi
139 Ambrose Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	20d	1	0.54mi
515 Lancaster Ln #138 Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,600	$2.94	24d	1	0.93mi
1023 Chadwick Cir Bay Point, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$2,350	$2.50	4d	1	0.98mi
2201 Oak Hills Cir Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$2,660	$3.26	1d	3	1.24mi
135 Poinsettia Ave Bay Point, CA	3.0	1.0	1169	$2,700	$2.31	1d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   status Active
3. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-07
   status Active
5. 2025-11-29
   status Pending
6. 2025-10-30
   listed $275,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,750
• − Management: −$2,750
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$29
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7
• After-tax cash flow: $4,358/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mt. Diablo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626370
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $77,494
• Composite: 37.5/100
• National rank: #4401
• State rank: #202 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bay Point

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #736
• US rank: #21661

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Point, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-02 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-07 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-11-29 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-30 Listed $275,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2021): $50 · +19.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.