6581 Meadow Ridge Cir · Wylie, TX 75173

$445,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,109 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2003 1.00 ac lot $211/sqft · at area comps Est $434k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Your Serene Oasis Awaits in Community ISD!** Discover the perfect blend of comfort and style in this exquisite 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence set on a sprawling 1-acre lot, just moments away from the picturesque Lake Lavon. This home embodies tranquility with its peaceful surroundings and modern conveniences, ideal for those seeking both space and serenity. Step inside to find a spacious and bright interior adorned with fresh paint and an inviting open floor plan. The laminate and tile flooring guide you through the main living areas, while new plush carpeting in the bedrooms adds a touch of luxury. The versatile formal dining room can easily transform into a home office, catering to all your lifestyle needs. The split primary suite offers a private escape with an ensuite bath featuring a luxurious garden tub, separate shower, and ample storage space. The heart of this home, the large living room, boasts a cozy fireplace, setting the stage for warm gatherings. Cooking enthusiasts will appreciate the functional kitchen, complete with an island and abundant Corian counter and cabinet space, flowing seamlessly into the living area. A walk-in pantry ensures all your culinary essentials are close at hand. Outdoor relaxation is a breeze with both a covered front porch and a great covered patio at the back that is 31x17, perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or evening sunset. The expansive backyard offers ample space for leisure and play. Situated just minutes from Lake Lavon, this serene haven provides the perfect balance of rural charm and modern convenience. Embrace the peaceful environment while remaining close to all the outdoor activities this prime location offers. Your dream home awaits on this picturesque 1-acre retreat.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Split primary suite
• Lake lavon

Tags

• 1 ACRE LOT
• LAKE LAVON
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SPLIT PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-528 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $315,000 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,747
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: 2.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6560 Meadow Ridge Cir	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,008 (-5%)	19mo	$499,000	$249	74
6659 Meadow Ridge Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,367 (+12%)	4mo	$430,000	$182	70
6599 Meadow Ridge Cir	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,842 (-13%)	22mo	$500,000	$271	59
14917 County Road 790	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,312 (+10%)	9mo	$575,000	$249	52
14589 County Road 545	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,310 (+10%)	13mo	$499,900	$216	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $208,739
• Equity at exit: $400,891

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.15×
• Total profit: $641,172
• Equity at exit: $864,537

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax from tax record: −$497 /mo · $5,970/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$662
• Net cashflow: $-528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,818

Max offer price $351,719

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-276	-5% $-402	+0% $-528	+5% $-654	+10% $-780
Rent	-10% $-777	-5% $-652	+0% $-528	+5% $-404	+10% $-279
Rate	-1.0pp $-304	-0.5pp $-415	base $-528	+0.5pp $-643	+1.0pp $-761

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6430 Rock Ridge Dr Nevada, TX	4.0	4.0	2500	$3,150	$1.26	0d	1	0.37mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $445,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $445,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $445,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $445,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $445,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $445,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $450,000 Active 1758-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1758 chars)

    **Your Serene Oasis Awaits in Community ISD!** Discover the perfect blend of comfort and style in this exquisite 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence set on a sprawling 1-acre lot, just moments away from the picturesque Lake Lavon. This home embodies tranquility with its peaceful surroundings and modern conveniences, ideal for those seeking both space and serenity. Step inside to find a spacious and bright interior adorned with fresh paint and an inviting open floor plan. The laminate and tile flooring guide you through the main living areas, while new plush carpeting in the bedrooms adds a touch of luxury. The versatile formal dining room can easily transform into a home office, catering to all your lifestyle needs. The split primary suite offers a private escape with an ensuite bath featuring a luxurious garden tub, separate shower, and ample storage space. The heart of this home, the large living room, boasts a cozy fireplace, setting the stage for warm gatherings. Cooking enthusiasts will appreciate the functional kitchen, complete with an island and abundant Corian counter and cabinet space, flowing seamlessly into the living area. A walk-in pantry ensures all your culinary essentials are close at hand. Outdoor relaxation is a breeze with both a covered front porch and a great covered patio at the back that is 31x17, perfect for enjoying a morning coffee or evening sunset. The expansive backyard offers ample space for leisure and play. Situated just minutes from Lake Lavon, this serene haven provides the perfect balance of rural charm and modern convenience. Embrace the peaceful environment while remaining close to all the outdoor activities this prime location offers. Your dream home awaits on this picturesque 1-acre retreat.

16. 2025-12-30
    historical
17. 2025-11-10
    price $459,500
18. 2025-08-15
    price $469,900
19. 2025-07-15
    price $472,500
20. 2025-06-06
    listed $475,000 Active
21. 2005-12-02
    soldstatus
22. 2005-11-22
    soldstatus
23. 2005-11-03
    historical
24. 2005-07-05
    listed $169,000
25. 2003-05-30
    soldstatus
26. 2002-12-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,970 · $497/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,144 · $679/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,174/yr (+$181/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$5,970
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,024
• − Management: −$3,024
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$14,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,436
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+166.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $450,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $459,500 NTREIS
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $469,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $472,500 NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $475,000 NTREIS
• 2005-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2005-11-03 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2005-07-05 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2003-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-12-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,970 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.