Plan 2509 Plan · Arcola, TX 77583

$296,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,509 sqft · SingleFamily · 614 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Gas range * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Downstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Master-planned community * Swimming pool * Playground * Close to golf courses * Pond * Clubhouse

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 613 days

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• KITCHEN USB CHARGING PORT
• WATERSENSE® LABELED FAUCETS
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY

🏗️ New construction. The $296,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,977.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.5% in Arcola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,425 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Billy Baines Middle (math 47% / reading 53%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 1,296 students, 37% FRL); Ridge Point H S (math 61% / reading 69%, grade B, #198 of 1,632 statewide, top 12%, 3,170 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 35% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 614 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,355 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 614 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.69%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,977
• List price: $296,995
• Delta: -0.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6915 Sunnyvale Ln	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,501 (-0%)	4mo	$295,000	$118	88
1135 Manteca Dr	0.03mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,423 (-3%)	18mo	$369,900	$153	71
802 Pismo Ln	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,495 (-1%)	9mo	$339,900	$136	63
7215 Wilshire Ct	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,336 (-7%)	0mo	$335,000	$143	59
818 Pismo Ln	0.55mi	4/3.5	2,508 (-0%)	14mo	$319,900	$128	59
7714 Cattleman Valley Dr	0.72mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+2%)	10mo	$329,900	$129	55
203 Murrieta Ln	0.10mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,826 (+13%)	18mo	$336,000	$119	50
507 Marley Oak Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,261 (-10%)	3mo	$319,900	$141	46
6406 Downey Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,400 (-4%)	17mo	$379,900	$158	41
207 William Ln	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,214 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$147	41
918 Pismo Ln	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,880 (+15%)	7mo	$350,000	$122	36
6414 Downey Ln	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,154 (-14%)	13mo	$369,900	$172	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-47,664
• Equity at exit: $44,429

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,659
• Equity at exit: $25,764

Cash invested: $83,434 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 44 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $332,450 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 66 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -18.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,756 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,607

Max offer price $297,977

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $324	-5% $221	+0% $118	+5% $15	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $9	+0% $118	+5% $227	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $194	base $118	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,494
• Closing costs: $8,939
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6822 Altadena Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1764	$2,070	$1.17	12d	1	0.43mi
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	73d	1	0.81mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	93d	1	0.84mi
6927 Ventura Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	4.0	2771	$3,300	$1.19	93d	1	0.96mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	12d	1	1.17mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	93d	1	1.27mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	93d	1	1.33mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	68d	1	1.35mi
318 Manor Ave Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1924	$2,400	$1.25	93d	1	1.38mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	93d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $296,995 Active 614 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $296,995 Active 612 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $296,995 Active 611 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $296,995 Active 610 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $296,995 Active 609 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $296,995 Active 606 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $296,995 Active 604 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $296,995 Active 603 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $296,995 Active 601 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $296,995 Active 599 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $296,995 Active 598 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $296,995 Active 597 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $296,995 Active 596 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $296,995 Active 595 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $296,995 Active 593 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $296,995 Active 592 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $296,995 Active 591 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $296,995 Active 590 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $296,995 Active 589 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $296,995 Active 588 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $296,995 Active 587 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $296,995 Active 586 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $296,995 Active 585 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $296,995 Active 584 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $296,995 Active 582 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $296,995 Active 581 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $296,995 Active 580 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $296,995 Active 579 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $296,995 Active 578 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $296,995 Active 577 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $296,995 Active 576 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $296,995 Active 575 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $296,995 Active 574 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $296,995 Active 573 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $296,995 Active 572 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $296,995 Active 571 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $296,995 Active 569 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $296,995 Active 567 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $296,995 Active 566 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $296,995 Active 563 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $296,995 Active 562 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $296,995 Active 561 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $296,995 Active 560 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $296,995 Active 558 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $296,995 Active 554 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $296,995 Active 552 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $296,995 Active 549 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $296,995 Active 548 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,995 Active 547 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,995 Active 546 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,069
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,691
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,646
• − Management: −$2,646
• − Depreciation: −$8,668
• Taxable loss: −$3,542
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$850
• After-tax cash flow: $2,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves aesthetics and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Ridge Point H S B TX #198/1,632 Nat'l #2,785/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 53/100

Livability — Arcola

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1425
• US rank: #24358

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $296,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $294,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $304,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $294,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $304,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $298,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $307,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $306,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-13 Price Changed $305,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-29 Price Changed $304,995 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $303,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-19 Price Changed $302,995 Zillow
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $300,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-22 Price Changed $298,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $296,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $294,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $292,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $289,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $287,995 Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-01-02 Price Changed $286,995 Zillow
• 2024-12-03 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-12 Price Changed $296,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Listed $306,995 Zillow