Manatee Plan · Ellenton, FL 34219

$289,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · Townhouse · 137 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Manatee home plan offers a comfortable and efficient layout with three bedrooms and two bathrooms spread across 1,433 square feet. This charming residence features a spacious open-concept living area that seamlessly connects the living room, dining space, and a well-appointed kitchen, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining guests. Natural light floods the interior through large windows, enhancing the welcoming atmosphere. The home also includes a convenient two-car garage, providing ample storage and parking space. Designed with functionality and style in mind, the Manatee plan ensures a cozy and inviting environment for modern living.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 137 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family home (Manatee plan); New construction - Plan model

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (1,433 sq ft total living area)

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,590.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $255,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.74%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $329,590
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7574 Sea Oak Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	1mo	$329,990	$230	89
7626 Sea Oak Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	5mo	$299,990	$209	87
7610 Sea Oak Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	5mo	$305,000	$213	87
9148 Gulf Haven Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	7mo	$319,990	$223	85
9136 Gulf Haven Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	8mo	$310,000	$216	85
9238 Gulf Haven Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	9mo	$340,000	$237	85
9234 Gulf Haven Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	9mo	$310,120	$216	77
9222 Gulf Haven Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	11mo	$335,000	$234	77
9250 Gulf Haven Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,433 (0%)	16mo	$366,990	$256	75
9117 Gulf Haven Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-3%)	20mo	$444,528	$321	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-74,445
• Equity at exit: $49,143

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-111,565
• Equity at exit: $28,497

Cash invested: $92,285 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,617 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,728
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$412 /mo · $4,944/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,883

Max offer price $299,128

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-97	+0% $-211	+5% $-324	+10% $-438
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-314	+0% $-211	+5% $-107	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-127	base $-211	+0.5pp $-296	+1.0pp $-383

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,398
• Closing costs: $9,888
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	0.17mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.17mi
7122 87th Ln E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1593	$2,750	$1.73	25d	1	0.36mi
9207 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,275	$1.37	25d	1	0.39mi
9224 Bonita Mar Dr Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1799	$2,290	$1.27	25d	1	0.41mi
8505 Bella Mar Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,750	$1.47	18d	1	0.57mi
8132 Tea Olive Ter Palmetto, FL	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,500	$1.47	25d	1	0.85mi
10120 Abrazo DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1122	$2,675	$2.38	3d	24	0.87mi
9009 Moccasin Wallow Rd Parrish, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5	1581	$2,056	$1.30	3d	32	0.88mi
10504 Spring Tide Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1533	$2,500	$1.63	5d	1	1.06mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,405	$2.37	5d	50	1.11mi
6354 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1123	$2,000	$1.78	25d	1	1.27mi
6345 Willowside St Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1407	$2,200	$1.56	25d	1	1.27mi
6334 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1235	$1,795	$1.45	5d	1	1.28mi
6249 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,890	$1.57	16d	1	1.28mi
6256 Fairmont Ln Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.5	1216	$1,845	$1.52	16d	1	1.30mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	23d	1	1.31mi
9962 Last Light Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1740	$2,495	$1.43	5d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $289,990 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,990 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,401
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,462
• − Property taxes: −$4,944
• − Insurance: −$1,648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,512
• − Management: −$2,512
• − Depreciation: −$9,588
• Taxable loss: −$8,265
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $-542/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained and updated townhouse is move-in ready with a good condition score and potential for further value enhancement through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and attract tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and reduce energy costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B