Rowan Plan · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$264,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The Rowan Floor Plan by Impression Homes is a thoughtfully designed single-story floor plan that perfectly balances comfort, functional and style. Featuring an open-concept layout and versatile living spaces, this home is built to accommodate your modern lifestyle. The Rowan's heart is its open-concept family room, which flows seamlessly into a large kitchen. The kitchen features a walk-in pantry and an adjacent utility room for maximum convenience. Primary Suite Retreat: The secluded primary bedroom is tucked away at the rear of the home, offering a quiet sanctuary. It features a large walk-in closet and a primary bath with options to customize your vanity and wall configurations. Smart Li

Key facts

• Utility room
• Large walk-in closet
• Primary bath options

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• UTILITY ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE RETREAT
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIMARY BATH OPTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $264,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Rowan); Active listing
• Exterior features: Address: 1922 Castle Creek Trl, Blue Ridge, TX 75424

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: Rowan; Living area 1,290

🏗️ New construction. The $264,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $234,780.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Blue Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $189,860 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.24%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,780
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1818 Potomac Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+3%)	1mo	$245,990	$184	84
1806 Potomac Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+3%)	2mo	$249,990	$187	84
1804 Potomac Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,211 (-6%)	2mo	$239,990	$198	80
1822 Teton River Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+5%)	6mo	$252,990	$187	79
1715 Potomac Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+5%)	6mo	$257,490	$190	77
1706 Potomac Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+10%)	7mo	$249,999	$176	69
1701 Teton River Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+10%)	9mo	$258,906	$182	68
1727 Riverside Trl	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+10%)	9mo	$258,056	$181	65
1714 Teton River Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,460 (+13%)	9mo	$241,990	$166	63
1610 Potomac Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,460 (+13%)	10mo	$241,990	$166	60
1617 Fawn Creek Dr	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,460 (+13%)	9mo	$256,990	$176	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $120,086
• Equity at exit: $211,508

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.47×
• Total profit: $359,833
• Equity at exit: $456,126

Cash invested: $65,738 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,899 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,231
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$293 /mo · $3,522/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,054

Max offer price $217,037

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,695
• Closing costs: $7,043
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1701 Teton River Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,895	$1.33	44d	1	0.18mi
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	13d	1	0.24mi
1818 Potomac Ln Blue Ridge, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,875	$1.41	4d	1	0.24mi
1621 Fawn Creek Dr Blue Ridge, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1681	$1,975	$1.17	1d	5	0.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,990 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,990 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,990 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,990 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,990 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,990 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,990 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,990 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,522
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,823
• − Management: −$1,823
• − Depreciation: −$6,830
• Taxable loss: −$5,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,329
• After-tax cash flow: $-142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B