11409 Evergreen Rose · San Antonio, TX 78109

$216,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $223k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Belmar Collection is a new series of single-family homes for sale at the Rose Valley masterplan in Converse, TX. Residents will enjoy convenient access to major highways for quick commutes and shopping, and eligible students will attend desirable schools within the East Central Independent School District.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 21 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $219,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home (Tilley plan); Living area approximately 1,692

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $217k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1207 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,386 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11541 Cinnamon Rose	0.12mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	1mo	$224,999	$133	93
11723 Evergreen Rose	0.02mi	4/3.0	1,657 (-2%)	1mo	$236,999	$143	93
2207 Camellia Rose	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,692 (0%)	2mo	$218,999	$129	90
11711 Evergreen Rose	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,657 (-2%)	2mo	$227,999	$138	89
11639 Evergreen Rose	0.08mi	4/3.0	1,657 (-2%)	2mo	$236,999	$143	89
11565 Cinnamon Rose	0.09mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+6%)	1mo	$179,999	$100	84
11529 Cinnamon Rose	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+6%)	2mo	$184,999	$103	81
2211 Camellia Rose	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,802 (+6%)	4mo	$189,999	$105	78
11545 Cinnamon Rose	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	2mo	$169,999	$113	72
11525 Cinnamon Rose	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,483 (-12%)	2mo	$208,999	$141	69
11537 Chestnut Rose	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	5mo	$185,499	$124	68
11242 Prairie Lndg	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (+9%)	2mo	$243,990	$132	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-40,433
• Equity at exit: $32,355

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-56,291
• Equity at exit: $18,762

Cash invested: $60,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1207
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,138
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$271 /mo · $3,255/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,898

Max offer price $216,999

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $79	+0% $4	+5% $-71	+10% $-146
Rent	-10% $-146	-5% $-71	+0% $4	+5% $80	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $60	base $4	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,250
• Closing costs: $6,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11602 Dog Rose Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.29mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,499	$1.51	0d	1	0.62mi
11151 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1859	$1,705	$0.92	25d	1	0.98mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.99mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1709	$1,950	$1.14	23d	1	0.99mi
11050 Eyelet Hbr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,875	$0.85	45d	1	1.03mi
3106 Drayton Ests Converse, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,293	$1.32	0d	1	1.04mi
2810 Praline Fry Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,745	$0.79	45d	1	1.04mi
2822 Praline Fry Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	4d	1	1.04mi
11046 Eyelet Hbr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	1.04mi
11038 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,995	$0.90	14d	1	1.07mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	6d	1	1.08mi
11026 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	4d	1	1.09mi
2826 Tybee Crk Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,830	$0.83	6d	1	1.09mi
11002 Eyelet Hbr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,745	$0.79	45d	1	1.12mi
11019 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,425	$1.00	45d	1	1.12mi
3006 Citron Gdn Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$1,950	$0.89	5d	1	1.13mi
10922 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	25d	1	1.20mi
2939 Gastonian Ml Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,495	$0.98	45d	1	1.21mi
2927 Gastonian Ml Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,850	$0.84	0d	1	1.21mi
2927 Gastonian Ml Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,850	$0.84	3d	1	1.21mi
10950 Chippewa Trce Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,800	$0.82	25d	1	1.21mi
10950 Chippewa Trce Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,750	$0.79	0d	1	1.21mi
10930 Juliette Pass Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,850	$0.84	4d	1	1.25mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	0d	1	1.31mi
2943 Forsyth Cyn Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$1,795	$0.81	25d	1	1.35mi
10819 Juliette Pass Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,745	$0.79	45d	1	1.36mi
2934 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$2,070	$0.94	45d	1	1.37mi
2942 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,745	$0.79	45d	1	1.37mi
3026 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2204	$1,745	$0.79	45d	1	1.38mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	45d	1	1.42mi
3130 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,885	$1.32	6d	1	1.42mi
3055 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	45d	1	1.42mi
3158 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	2205	$1,895	$0.86	3d	1	1.44mi
10626 McClintock Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,795	$0.92	0d	1	1.45mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	23d	1	1.46mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,410	$0.97	25d	1	1.46mi
10606 Varmus Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,546	$1.07	0d	1	1.48mi
2802 Stigler Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,495	$0.92	6d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $216,999 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $216,999 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $216,999 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $216,999 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $216,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $216,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $216,999 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $216,999 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $216,999 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $216,999 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,999 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,999 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 307-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $219,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,155
• − Property taxes: −$3,255
• − Insurance: −$1,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$6,313
• Taxable loss: −$3,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B