1218 E Cleveland Ave #23 · Madera, CA 93638

$42,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Other · 286 Days on market

Built 2015 $60/sqft · 11% above area Est $38k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• ARV discount +2.6/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meadows Mobile Home Park, a welcoming 55+ community offers comfort and convenience. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features approximately 700 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Inside you'll find a floor plan that's easy to maintain, making it an ideal choice for low-maintenance living. Enjoy the benefits of a friendly senior community with great amenities including a clubhouse and pool.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 2015
• Listed 286 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $974 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.0% vs local median 3.9% in Madera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,053 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madera Unified (urban): math 22% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,095 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.15%
• DSCR: 5.72
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,881
• List price: $42,000
• Delta: 10.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $55,282
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.91×
• Total profit: $128,270
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93638

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $974

Break-even live

Break-even rent $452

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
924 E Yosemite Ave Unit 101 Madera, CA	1.0	1.0	492	$1,220	$2.48	44d	1	0.36mi
117 S K St Unit A Madera, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,550	$2.07	13d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Meadows Mobile Home Park, a welcoming 55+ community offers comfort and convenience. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features approximately 700 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Inside you'll find a floor plan that's easy to maintain, making it an ideal choice for low-maintenance living. Enjoy the benefits of a friendly senior community with great amenities including a clubhouse and pool.

2. 2025-07-31
   listed $42,000 Active 389-char remark

   Show marketing remark (389 chars)

   Meadows Mobile Home Park, a welcoming 55+ community offers comfort and convenience. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home features approximately 700 sq. ft. of comfortable living space. Inside you'll find a floor plan that's easy to maintain, making it an ideal choice for low-maintenance living. Enjoy the benefits of a friendly senior community with great amenities including a clubhouse and pool.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$1,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $11,765
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,823
• After-tax cash flow: $8,862/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madera Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623340
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,446
• Composite: 27.2/100
• National rank: #12454
• State rank: #1095 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Madera

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #25190

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madera, CA
• County: Madera County · 133,170 people
• City population: 109,650
• Metro: Madera, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,571
• Household income: $62,374
• Rent vs Own: 44.0% rent · 56.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1707.0

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 83% Two or more races 22% White 11% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 29% English-only · Spanish 69% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.33%
• Current HPI: 458.5577
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Madera, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listed $42,000 FRESNOMLS