None · Old Brookville, NY 11545

$2,750,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 4,542 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1975 2.02 ac lot $605/sqft · 6% below area Est $3175k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning Old Brookville Estate on 2 Acres with Pool & Outdoor Oasis Welcome to this exquisite 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled on 2 acres of beautifully landscaped property in the prestigious area of Old Brookville. This elegant residence offers the perfect blend of luxury, comfort, and privacy. Step inside to discover spacious living areas filled with natural light, including a grand living room with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a gourmet kitchen. The primary suite is a private retreat, complete with a spa-like en-suite bathroom. The fully finished basement is an entertainer’s dream, featuring a custom bar and ample space for gatherings. Outdoors, enjoy a serene backyard paradise with an in-ground pool, a charming gazebo, and a spacious patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This exceptional property offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of Long Island’s most desirable locations. Don’t miss out on this remarkable home!

Key facts

• In-ground pool
• Gourmet kitchen
• Custom bar

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• POOL
• OUTDOOR OASIS
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CUSTOM BAR
• IN-GROUND POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.75M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.42M (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.15M (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.15M (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,119 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Shore Central School District (suburban): math 88% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #24 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Glen Head Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 371 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Middle School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #122 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 646 students, 0% FRL); North Shore Senior High School (math 100% / reading 72%, 764 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $19k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $82k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.58M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $434k; list at $2.75M implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,150,000 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $3,174,783
• List price: $2,750,000
• Delta: -13.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Mccouns Ln	0.34mi	5/3.5	4,355 (-4%)	19mo	$2,900,000	$666	61
35 Hoaglands Ln	0.25mi	6/6.5 (+1)	4,787 (+5%)	2mo	$2,750,000	$574	61
6 Dolly Cam Ln	0.43mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,284 (-6%)	10mo	$2,350,000	$549	58
6 Longridge Ln	0.48mi	5/3.5	4,975 (+10%)	6mo	$2,500,000	$503	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-563,207
• Equity at exit: $410,034

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-641,234
• Equity at exit: $237,770

Cash invested: $770,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11545

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Active inventory: 112
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $21,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,421
• Tax from tax record: −$3,268 /mo · $39,211/yr
• Insurance: −$1,146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,515
• Net cashflow: $-1,850

Break-even live

Break-even rent $23,841

Max offer price $2,423,241

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-1,071	+0% $-1,850	+5% $-2,628	+10% $-3,406
Rent	-10% $-3,548	-5% $-2,699	+0% $-1,850	+5% $-1,000	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-1,150	base $-1,850	+0.5pp $-2,562	+1.0pp $-3,287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $687,500
• Closing costs: $82,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Plaka Ct Glen Head, NY	6.0	6.0	5100	$21,500	$4.22	0d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,750,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,750,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $2,750,000 Active 1005-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1005 chars)

    Stunning Old Brookville Estate on 2 Acres with Pool & Outdoor Oasis Welcome to this exquisite 5-bedroom, 4-bathroom home nestled on 2 acres of beautifully landscaped property in the prestigious area of Old Brookville. This elegant residence offers the perfect blend of luxury, comfort, and privacy. Step inside to discover spacious living areas filled with natural light, including a grand living room with a cozy fireplace, a formal dining room, and a gourmet kitchen. The primary suite is a private retreat, complete with a spa-like en-suite bathroom. The fully finished basement is an entertainer’s dream, featuring a custom bar and ample space for gatherings. Outdoors, enjoy a serene backyard paradise with an in-ground pool, a charming gazebo, and a spacious patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. This exceptional property offers a rare opportunity to own a piece of paradise in one of Long Island’s most desirable locations. Don’t miss out on this remarkable home!

17. 2025-09-20
    historical
18. 2025-05-22
    listed $2,999,999 Active
19. 2025-05-20
    historical
20. 2025-03-12
    listed $2,999,999 Active
21. 1982-10-01
    soldstatus $434,142

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $39,211 · $3,268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $42,843 · $3,570/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,632/yr (+$303/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $258,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$154,043
• − Property taxes: −$39,211
• − Insurance: −$13,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$20,640
• − Management: −$20,640
• − Depreciation: −$80,000
• Taxable loss: −$70,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,868
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Shore Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626370
• Math proficiency: 88% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $113,973
• Composite: 78.77/100
• National rank: #69
• State rank: #24 of 590 in NY

Livability — Old Brookville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1119
• US rank: #23041

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Old Brookville, NY
• City population: 11,963
• Population (ZIP): 11,963

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2% Dominican 2% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 6% Romanian 6% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Indo-European 13% Spanish 9% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.51%
• Current HPI: 279.7243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+533.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $2,750,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Listed $2,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-12 Listed $2,999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1982-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $434,142 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $39,211 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.