5609 Newcastle Ct #5422 · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$319,998

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,110 sqft · Condo · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $595/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. MOVE-IN READY!! This attached home is the largest plan in the collection. A two-car garage sits on the first floor, while upstairs is an open concept living space with sliding doors to the outdoor entertainment area. Also on the top floor are all three bedrooms, including the owner’s suite with a spa-inspired bathroom. Welcome to paradise—where you’ll find championship golf, top-tier resort amenities and endless opportunities to play, relax and connect. Set in stunning Ave Maria, this gated community is thoughtfully designed for your next best chapter. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are

Key facts

• Gated community
• $595 HOA
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINMENT AREA
• SPA INSPIRED BATHROOM
• GATED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $319,998

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new construction — Bay Creek plan; Located at 5609 Newcastle Ct #5422, Ave Maria, FL 34142

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (2,110 total living area)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $320k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 453 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,956/mo this rent would consume 95% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $90k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $319,998

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.85%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $46,010
• Equity at exit: $76,504

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $157,102
• Equity at exit: $79,705

Cash invested: $89,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 453
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,956 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,041
• Net cashflow: $1,109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,552

Max offer price $319,998

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,330	-5% $1,219	+0% $1,109	+5% $998	+10% $887
Rent	-10% $717	-5% $913	+0% $1,109	+5% $1,304	+10% $1,500
Rate	-1.0pp $1,270	-0.5pp $1,190	base $1,109	+0.5pp $1,026	+1.0pp $941

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	22d	1	0.10mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	25d	1	0.10mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3026 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,350	$1.50	22d	1	0.11mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	25d	1	0.12mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	25d	1	0.12mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	25d	1	0.13mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	25d	1	0.13mi
5667 Melbourne Ct #7812 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$6,250	$3.59	13d	1	0.13mi
5661 Melbourne Ct #8011 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	13d	1	0.14mi
5674 Melbourne Ct Unit 7721 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$7,295	$3.46	13d	1	0.17mi
5680 Melbourne Ct #7521 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$2,650	$1.26	5d	1	0.17mi
5704 Melbourne Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$3,995	$2.29	25d	1	0.18mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	13d	1	0.19mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.20mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	22d	1	0.21mi
5739 Oakmont Ct #8412 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	25d	1	0.23mi
5739 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$3,700	$2.16	25d	1	0.23mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	22d	1	0.23mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	22d	1	0.23mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	22d	1	0.25mi
5728 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	13d	1	0.27mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	15d	1	0.28mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	22d	1	0.28mi
5722 Oakmont Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$3,995	$1.89	13d	1	0.29mi
5414 Espada Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2799	$10,995	$3.93	22d	1	0.33mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	25d	1	0.42mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	22d	1	0.42mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	25d	1	0.44mi
5856 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,995	$4.00	25d	1	0.45mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	25d	1	0.47mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	15d	1	0.49mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	22d	1	0.51mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	13d	1	0.52mi
5897 Sunningdale St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	3.0	2000	$7,495	$3.75	25d	1	0.56mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	25d	1	0.56mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	25d	1	0.59mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	25d	1	0.59mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	22d	1	0.59mi
5938 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,995	$4.89	25d	1	0.60mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	25d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,998 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,998 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,998 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,998 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,998 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,998 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 681-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $319,998 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,998 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,998 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,998 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,998 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,998 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,998 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $319,998 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,758
• − Management: −$4,758
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable income: $9,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,203
• After-tax cash flow: $11,100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready townhouse is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a spacious layout. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability
• Both smart thermostat — saves energy and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both smart home integration — increases convenience and marketability ↑
• Both smart thermostat — saves energy and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B